Initial unemployment claims edged up last week. This is disappointing but the data is damaged by the failure of California to update its numbers. And as I have argued, the initial claims data appears to have overstated the severity of the recession. I want to explore that point a bit further. To begin, I have a particular reason to be cautious about the initial claims data. At least in Oregon, following that data resulted in a fairly consequential forecast error. From the latest Oregon Revenue Forecast: At the time of our previous forecast, the only data available was the tidal wave of initial claims for unemployment ... (full story)