The world economy has risen from the depths of the initial COVID-19 plunge. But the recovery has been tepid, uneven, and fragile – and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Start with the good news. World merchandise trade has rebounded strongly, consistent with indications of a revival in household demand for goods in many economies, even as public-health restrictions and consumer concerns continue to hobble demand for services. Moreover, financial markets have held up surprisingly well, with stock markets in many countries regaining or even exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Despite near-zero interest ... (full story)