The major theme of this cycle’s central bank meetings is the “pivot” from emergency COVID measures towards a more balanced policy to support the emerging recovery. Some of the policies introduced are simply not sustainable in the medium term, such as the Fed’s unlimited buying of assets. As we get closer to the final quarter of the year, regulators are likely to be cautious about adjusting policy. The market hates surprises, so central banks are going to try to telegraph policy changes. Therefore, we want to be extra curious about comments from the press conferences. They’re likely to have a much higher potential to ... (full story)