The key difference between our recession methodologies and the NBER’s is that we rely on leading indicators to identify the end of a recession in real time, whereas the NBER prefers to wait for confirmation from coincident and lagging data, following data revisions. The NBER pays particular attention to personal income net of transfers, and payrolls. While payroll growth has ticked up, net personal incomes are still falling (top-left chart). This shows we should not expect the NBER to announce the recession’s end in the very near future. Survey data suggests that economic activity has bottomed, but diffusion surveys, ... (full story)