The big market mover this week was Retail Sales, up 17.7% in May. Consensus estimates averaged 8%. A pop was expected; the magnitude wasn’t. Remember, the economy has never seen this kind of shutdown, or experienced such fiscal or monetary policies, so there is no experience or precedent upon which forecasts can be based. In this recovery, the consensus is likely to get the direction right, but as we have seen with other data announcements, not the magnitude. One result of this is financial market volatility. The pop from the bottom wasn’t a surprise. That always happens at the trough of a recession. And since the ... (full story)