With the next round of inflation reports on the near horizon, markets should be prepared for a disappointment that, following April’s employment report, may well erase the uptick in rate-cut expectations. The bottom line is that good prices are no longer on the downward trend that has powered the disinflation in the major inflation indicators. Much of the prior improvement in commodities prices was due to a healing of the supply chains related to inventory shortages that resulted from the pandemic. Now that most goods are moving along freely and supply bottlenecks are pretty much gone, the fundamentals for goods ... (full story)