DislikedWe were here when the conversation was derail into politics.... {quote} Well I was more interesting for tonight to build maps flows for timing and trading rather that the actual election results. --> Basically by +/- 01:00 GMT (08:00pmEST) we will get FL exit polls. If the margin is large we pretty much will see markets switching and killing the risk off mode as statistically the odds will be nearly zero for a surprise. We trade expectation not facts and the early you get in .... Assuming all the earlier results before FL and exit polls goes +/-inline...Ignored
I mean the certainty play - Im still confused how trump victory translates to rates =) hes gonna get into office in January = his wictory can lower mid term rates expectations via uncertainty. On the other hand =) potentional protectionst policies = higher inflation probable =) on contrary can lead to higher mid term rates expectations. Short term? = FED will want to raise in DEC to get as high as possible to have some ammunition just in case. On the other hand = bastards are gonna interpret it as no hike in DEC? So for me the rates play is completely unclear.