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US Presidentials: analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' after two face to face in TV.
☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an up-date of the analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' after the second face to face in TV, according to the graphical methods used in the first curve analysis (#1).
☒ Graphical Elements.
According to previous (n.165; n.173; n.174; n.177) posts, the structure of aggregated polls, until to september first face to face, shows a continuous decreasing spread ''Clinton-Trump'', with Trump consensus in continuation increase (see also curve analysis: #1). The sample of polls of September 1-15, showed a local important increase in Trump consensus in 14 & 15 Sept. polls.
The decreasing spread ''Clinton vs. Trump'' observed until August (#1) shows an important stop during the phase between two face to face.
Clinton consensus trend, shows a new local top in Autumn, well above Summer top, but below the key top of April 2016. The consensus curve of Clinton now is above the main descending trend-line, and it is a very important first sign-signal (yellow circle) for a reversal structure of Clinton consensus trend. The blue-area is the consensus-level zone (set-up), that Clinton curve do not breaks in order to win this competition.
Yellow circle on Clinton chart is linked to two descending tops of Trump curve ''Summer > Autumn'', with a local SellOff of curve in the phase of two face to face. The main ascending trend of Trump curve is intact, bat now there is a key test of the local ascending trend-line from June 2016. The pink area is the critical elements for Trump curve evolution:
consensus curve well above this area is very favorable for Trump win probability;
consensus curve well below this pink area, is a dangerous and definitive(???) bad signal for Trump consensus;
consensus curve below the violet zone, will pull the consensus until bottom area or below.
The spread curve ''Clinton vs. Trump'' evolution shows a decreasing pattern until to Summer (III week of September), according to previous analysis (#1). The start of Autumn shows the ascending cross of the main trend-line and a local chart-structure with a possible bullish-action (favorable to Clinton). In blue there is the critical zone linked to blue zone of Clinton consensus chart.
☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.
Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039
☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
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