sisse, can u pls claryfi this? where r ur statuses right now? Im trying to create mid and long term TA maps but first need to claryfi this.
What is clear is the ST neutral on US500: as for right now - its untradable as the expectations are clashing. And its gonna be super interesting - too many variables as u can see. Excited to see how it plays out.
These are just 2 of many scenarions: (now in netral - once we past 1st week of NOV most likely we go sell short term)
A: CBs match expectations (boe action etc.) and Clinton wins = Very soft relief rally before RMT grasps the market =) for RMT short term leg down (I think the leg is not in motion yet as there is too much uncertainty)
B: CBs match expectations and Trump wins = risk-off quick leg down but limited due to rate hike prices-out.
There is a lot of other scenarion in between (depending on CB action mix) so its impractical to map them all now.
And If we accept that the mid term is neutral. Its just a matter of time before we come back to mid term flip!! So the whole thing can be traded both ways! Its again nice how it folds. - unless the CBs go full monetary f*cktard with easing we will get to flip no matter what via a short term leg down.
P.S.: watch what the short term swing means on mid term (previous map) and long term (this map)
In any case. It all may be wrong. Equities are generally terrible instrument
DislikedUS Equities closing extremely high without a break but extending the highs to 2105.x ... Something smell very fishy across the board and things rather big are cooking in the background. Don't like what I am seeing in correlated markets neither the way the last rally panned out in the US. I am bookmarking and putting a key mark in my FA charts today 01 / 07 / 2016. For strictly FA and structural reasons key and 6th update after the Brexit news. --> Changing mid and long term outlook in US equities from Neutral to SELL. TA wise actively...Ignored
Disliked{quote} FYI, we are in neutral mid and long term in US equities. Long term no changes on sight, and I doubt we change anything next year except if the random guy wins election and destroy the US ..... mid term change is around the corner .... sisseIgnored
These are just 2 of many scenarions: (now in netral - once we past 1st week of NOV most likely we go sell short term)
A: CBs match expectations (boe action etc.) and Clinton wins = Very soft relief rally before RMT grasps the market =) for RMT short term leg down (I think the leg is not in motion yet as there is too much uncertainty)
B: CBs match expectations and Trump wins = risk-off quick leg down but limited due to rate hike prices-out.
There is a lot of other scenarion in between (depending on CB action mix) so its impractical to map them all now.
And If we accept that the mid term is neutral. Its just a matter of time before we come back to mid term flip!! So the whole thing can be traded both ways! Its again nice how it folds. - unless the CBs go full monetary f*cktard with easing we will get to flip no matter what via a short term leg down.
P.S.: watch what the short term swing means on mid term (previous map) and long term (this map)
In any case. It all may be wrong. Equities are generally terrible instrument
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