AUD last chance mofu to the micro pip for 0.7605 and 0.7827 fyi
love buying/selling those
love buying/selling those
The Really Useless System 25 replies
Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies
The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies
Disliked...and I will take that ...Clearing final short term swing in equites on the test 1917xx. In strictly technically sense there are a couple of points left to 1911.x but given the circumstances 'don't be a dick for a tick rule apply' and its worthless to hold over the weekend. Euro still with crumbs left ... but there is a extra 45 mins left in currencies ... sisseIgnored
Disliked{quote} Sisse, so u expect the momentum to stall next week? U meantioned it may become "crowded trade" (= losing momentum) after the weekend once the world-media put the headlines. However, Im pretty supprised that the medial attention of the world-wide ones is not big at all given the size of the decline!! Plus the close is extremelly bearish. I would expect it to continue down without any durable stops/breaks + if china/oil gives hand the pace could be the same like last week and I bet at least one of them will. Oil definitelly looks as being...Ignored
Falling Oil price:
This is what money does when risk in global markets is detected. However, this happens every now and then and doesnt drives directly into a bear market or a crash in equities. It depends a lot on the capacity of US economy to receive hits.
State of US Economy
One of the best indicators of US Economy is the Retail Index. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US Economy.
Absolute performance of S&P Retail index during the last 3 years.Disliked{quote} On my map I have 188x as this month low. Followed by 188x -> 198x/201x -> 178x till april. That will be a soft landing for ES before switching from normalization mode to buy and hold mode. But friday session ended with a smell of capitulation on equities : that's often how panic/risk leg ends so we may get some bounce from there. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Would you mind going into a bit more detail on your thoughts of this? Looks like buying to meIgnored
Disliked{quote} Sisse, so u expect the momentum to stall next week? U mentioned it may become "crowded trade" (= losing momentum) after the weekend once the world-media put the headlines.Ignored
DislikedChina equities collapse because China is forced to devaluate Yuan for paying debt:.Ignored
Quoting sisse;8682372. [COLOR=RedDislikedThe current moves in China are via economic output slowdown [/color]not really about debt.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think everybody is missing a point here. China has ammo in its macro policy pocket that no other country has - removing the 1 child limit - and it has just used it: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/wo...ld-policy.html While this may take decades to boost the workforce, the same is not true of consumption.Ignored
Disliked{quote} --> Interesting point. Indeed a lot of investors will overlook demographic issues for trading decisions. However in this case, most experts seem to agree that we will barely see any major impact in China demographics and in Fertility Rates (which is usually the key indicator for family size). --> Even your source ("Even with the new two-child policy, the population is expected to decline starting in the 2030s." ) made it very clear that China population is set to decline by 2030. It make sense, and there is ample and irrefutable empirical...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I don't believe that they will start having 4-5 kids like in Africa. But I do believe that many Chinese families will take advantage of this to have two instead of one. Traditional Chinese culture is very family oriented, and you don't change values that have persisted for thousands of years in thirty years or even in seventy. (Ask the Russians about that). The Chinese government are long term strategic thinkers when it comes to their economy (not always perfect as the Great Leap forward proved, but certainly you have to give them a lot...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Consider this: even when there are suddenly more babies, the people can only spend as much as they have. That is especially true for the lower class........Ignored
Disliked{quote} They have at least 300 million women of child bearing age,Ignored
Disliked{quote} But that's exactly the point. Another very traditional Chinese value is to have a very high savings rate. The Chinese government really hasn't been able to find a way to get them to spend more (even though it would like to) because Chinese citizens aren't that convinced that the government can be relied on to look out for them all that much, and feel (probably justifiably) much more secure when they save a lot for retirement, future emergencies etc (on average 30-50% of income). But having kids is the 'traditional' insurance for the future,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} That's all I needed. brb moving to china to do my part in kicking off the baby boomIgnored