Further analysis.
Stochastic
Daily - Overbought
4 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
1 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
RSI (14)
Daily - Currently at 65 - clearly an uptrend has formed.
4 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
1 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
Weekly time frame is definitely on an uptrend channel. Price just bounced from the bottom of the channel around 118 area not long ago. RSI has now move above 50 and stochastic is pointing up (not in overbought yet) show the uptrend may have resume.
On xe.com price dipped 6 pips from friday's close. Although it is only a mere 6 pips. But I think it is quite rare for a price to move over Saturday + Sunday before interbank market operation opens in the (New Zealand/Aussie).
therefore in short term - I think that market 'may' trade south first. We 'may' have a gap down at market open. With 121.50 will cap from moving up in the short term. Short term means before Wednesday FOMC.
All in all ,
Long term trend = Up Up Up...
Reason : Due to divergence in monetary policy. US wanting to increase interest rate while Japan continue to ease with QQE. Unless FOMC surprises us with something huge. Something like US will not raise rate at all and continue the near zero policy for an extended period of time + Japan does not intend to boost QQE further or even reducing it? These 'surprises' of course are less likely.
Short term trend = Down. with 121.50 or 122 will become the resistance and 120 will become the support.
Reason : 1. Technical indicators showing overbought and bearish divergence in some of them
2. The overbought and bearish divergence occurs at 'significant number' - 121.50. which is almost at the top of the range (121.75)
3. Price at xe.com dipped on saturday/sunday before the interbank market opens. But we have to wait for interbank market to open in NZ/OZ in about 8 hours to confirm anything.
4. Traders in NZ/OZ/Japan may want to book some of their long USD/JPY profit first before pushing the market up further. Remember that when NY close on thursday, the price was around 120.92. But when the Asian market opened on Friday, they push the price down towards 120.60. (In my opinion, they're just booking profit from some of their long position from 120/119 area. They must have put loads of new buy order at 120.20 area as the price bounce in that area as Europe and US market opens.
These are just my speculation... I may be wrong. Never rely on other's opinion/analysis. We trade what we see.
FS
Stochastic
Daily - Overbought
4 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
1 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
RSI (14)
Daily - Currently at 65 - clearly an uptrend has formed.
4 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
1 H - Overbought with bearish divergence
Weekly time frame is definitely on an uptrend channel. Price just bounced from the bottom of the channel around 118 area not long ago. RSI has now move above 50 and stochastic is pointing up (not in overbought yet) show the uptrend may have resume.
On xe.com price dipped 6 pips from friday's close. Although it is only a mere 6 pips. But I think it is quite rare for a price to move over Saturday + Sunday before interbank market operation opens in the (New Zealand/Aussie).
therefore in short term - I think that market 'may' trade south first. We 'may' have a gap down at market open. With 121.50 will cap from moving up in the short term. Short term means before Wednesday FOMC.
All in all ,
Long term trend = Up Up Up...
Reason : Due to divergence in monetary policy. US wanting to increase interest rate while Japan continue to ease with QQE. Unless FOMC surprises us with something huge. Something like US will not raise rate at all and continue the near zero policy for an extended period of time + Japan does not intend to boost QQE further or even reducing it? These 'surprises' of course are less likely.
Short term trend = Down. with 121.50 or 122 will become the resistance and 120 will become the support.
Reason : 1. Technical indicators showing overbought and bearish divergence in some of them
2. The overbought and bearish divergence occurs at 'significant number' - 121.50. which is almost at the top of the range (121.75)
3. Price at xe.com dipped on saturday/sunday before the interbank market opens. But we have to wait for interbank market to open in NZ/OZ in about 8 hours to confirm anything.
4. Traders in NZ/OZ/Japan may want to book some of their long USD/JPY profit first before pushing the market up further. Remember that when NY close on thursday, the price was around 120.92. But when the Asian market opened on Friday, they push the price down towards 120.60. (In my opinion, they're just booking profit from some of their long position from 120/119 area. They must have put loads of new buy order at 120.20 area as the price bounce in that area as Europe and US market opens.
These are just my speculation... I may be wrong. Never rely on other's opinion/analysis. We trade what we see.
FS