DislikedHey Sisse, I'm a real big fan of yours and read everything you write. I really appreciate all you do here. That spike to 1.1700 was really something to see. Didn't quite make it to the 38% retracement of the fall from 1.40 of April of last year though. It is not clear to me what "fair value" is but I am guess it is still higher than the 1.1360 it is currently trading at. If I had to guess a strong dollar is why the Empire State Manufacturing came in at -14.9 last week. That and whatever is happening in the black box known as China. Like everybody,...Ignored
On the commodities part ...I would only add from the FOOL post the other side of the equation which is a collapse in demand too. All emerging countries (especially CHINA) that were driving the rally in the past decade burst and most of them (Russia, Brazil, etc) except China already in recession.
Basically both supply and demand got crushed....
Disliked{quote} cause of oil crash is easy to see: SA has abdicated and decided to let the open market decide what the price of crude should be - PLUS - the revolution in fracking/directional drilling has brought on large new supply vectors, most notably from N. America. Marginal, over-leveraged suppliers have to keep pumping to service debt, stay afloat, etc - and the more they produce, the larger the supply glut gets, the lower the price goes, the more they have to produce to stay alive - a vicious circle. All that could change if SA/OPEC would cut production....Ignored
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now