DislikedHi Sissie, a question: what would be your stance on this rate mode trading now = after FOMC? It seems to me that the FED was not the necassary trigger even though it was only very slightly dowish. Given the stressed data dependence - does it mean that the entry into RMT could be just "gradual" ( ) if the data are coming good? Given the fact that next FED meeting is at the end of July = i.e. next big potential event-trigger of RMT is pretty far away. {quote} Plus when you say its best to closely tract the intraday moves. Is it because the Fed...Ignored
Good questions!
- what would be your stance on this rate mode trading now = after FOMC?
- In my view we are officially in RTM period.
- Within the next 6 months we have a hike (or two).
- For the flow (in general and simple words): sell as high as you can until September.
- does it mean that the entry into RMT could be just "gradual"
- Yes without any last minute externalities. We are going for gradual hikes at the beginning of the rates cycle
- when you say its best to closely tract the intraday moves. Is it because the Fed was pretty much somewhere between these two scenarios (Slightly dowish but ...
- Yes, as I mentioned yesterday after the FOMC. The FED was in between Slightly dovish and neutral. Thats why we didn't break up quickly (it wasn't enough short term impulse in the reaction) and tracking closely the following sessions was/is important for markets to have time to digest and make their final say about it ...
- ouve drawn and its unclear now where the market is heading?
- No not really. You need to add context otherwise you are interpreting my comment about the intraday flows of the news with the actual swing in play.
- The swing in play (the one I am trading and talking about cause the pending conversation with some posters here and in PM) comes from late May from the test on the 1.087x and later updated for reloading at 1.122x (check some backposts) and it aimed to minimum a test of highs 1.144x (right now) and the extension 1.178x with a break with dovish FED June.
- More than unclear, the FED was soft but not soft enough to trigger the break in the intraday flows from the news (as discussed yesterday) so without a break there is no shake and is nothing you can do until then except (also discussed yesterday) trail stops on failure at these levels...
- ....mean setting new year high in recent swing and invalidation of the RMT
- Not at all. Why?
- Every major continuation move, despite the origin (rates or else) will ALWAYS start with a retrace/pulback to load as high or as low as possible.
- The only thing we are talking right now is when this last wave retrace up ends not if we have a new uptrend or if the major swing is invalid or if Rates are not in play.
Let me wrapped up very clearly. After this FOMC Rates are in play. From now until September we have loading time pre hikes. From September onwards (till Jan 2016 for the mid term swing) we have the momentum waves with the actual rates.
I am personally (and by experience alone so take it as you want) trading and would prefer (expect) a clean sweep in the euro cleaning everybody at the highs in a fast in and out leg and to mark the high of the year.
If it doesn't happen and the 1.14xx hold again? ... At these particular levels I wont lose my sleep as the only thing left is the extension on a swing retrace that just feed the ego and please the small greedy side we all have as a traders when you are deep in the money in a swing....
I hope it clarify your points....
sisse