DislikedArr I see what you are saying, looks like I got the wrong end of the (s)tick.Ignored
"Wrong end of the (s)tick"
You reap what you sow.
Voodoo Science-Statistical Analysis 45 replies
Statistical analysis of trading (PA, MM and more...) 3 replies
Best tools for statistical analysis of tick data and news events? 8 replies
Statistical Analysis of Trading History 9 replies
Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies
DislikedArr I see what you are saying, looks like I got the wrong end of the (s)tick.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yeah, maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick. I thought Bill was postulating that a price level that get hits only once is a potential problem area. So the only way to see that would be on a 1-tick chart, wouldn't it? On a 2-tick chart, if the "bar" is at one price only then both transactions took place at that price, so the price isn't h-left transient. Only a single point on a 1-tick chart would show true transience. Analysing this would be impractical, though. And like I said above, so what if a single price is transient? Why would...Ignored
Disliked{quote}YOU ARE THE ONLY PERSON who really got the idea so far!!! I see a lot of people disputing facts! Prices are 97%+ h-recurrent for the right h. This means that every-time a price is hit, there is 97% chance it will be h-recurrent. so if the last time it was not h-recurrent, it has 97% chance to be h-recurrent now. it is not the bars, you should count for the probability. focus on price!!! Less than 3% of prices will not be h-recurrent for some minimum h. For example, go back. if you find a price which is not 5-recurrent, go into...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hey pedma, I've just seen your recent conversation with BillYon on Vlad's thread, and I now understand why you're talking about tick charts . Actually the First Opposite TZ system presented here does not analyse Bill's idea. It analyses TZs at the bar level, not price or tick level. A TZ on an M240 bar may not contain any TZs on lower timeframes, but that's not relevant to this system. I think that Bill's idea about price hitting a certain level only once, creating a true TZ, has some merit, but would be very difficult to prove...Ignored
Disliked{quote} ... Pedma, You dont have to use the futures data you can just connect to your broker and create an offline chart (I think MathTrader recently posted some code to do so). However the tick chart will only be a representation of the market from your broker's data feed, not all of the forex market. Depending on the broker, I doubt it will be an issue as it should be a large enough sample to be an adequate representation. Give it a go and see what you find. You wont know until you try.Ignored
Disliked{quote} This is indeed what I understand. These events must be caught microscopically. 1 min and below. Waiting for a non recurrent price level for some -h and a deviation from such. Impractical..yes but not so much with an EA. The single possible transient price or zone of prices {quote}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks NT, yes i should use H4 for this First Opposite System, especially it supports the overlapping idea. {quote} Thanks for your information Innate. {quote} Hi Bill, any idea which tick value is a good choice ? Trying to analyze price: If i use tick100, i got more zones than tick150. And compare to tick100, i got more zones in tick20. So, the smaller tick value we use, the more zones we get. But, i still have no statistic data about the accuracy of using different tick value (especially the smaller tick value). I just think,...Ignored
DislikedDo you fellas have all the indies from this venture? There is one indie that gives the statistical probability of price coming back to a TZ for a given pair. The TZ project was very nice. I do not think you can trade them because no one has been able to quantify just how far price should move away from a PTZ before you take the trade betting that it will come back to it. I think this is new problem. So far, no has got that right. Anyone that has will most likely never tell.Ignored
DislikedDo you fellas have all the indies from this venture? There is one indie that gives the statistical probability of price coming back to a TZ for a given pair. The TZ project was very nice. I do not think you can trade them because no one has been able to quantify just how far price should move away from a PTZ before you take the trade betting that it will come back to it. I think this is new problem. So far, no has got that right. Anyone that has will most likely never tell.Ignored
DislikedI do not think you can trade them because no one has been able to quantify just how far price should move away from a PTZ before you take the trade betting that it will come back to it.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hey jmn, thanks for dropping by. One of the main points that this research has highlighted is that you can't trade towards a first opposite PTZ mechanically, that is by entering and placing stops at the same percentage levels between Target TZ and Base TZ every time. If you do then you will lose over time. But if you enter and place stops dynamically, at different levels each time, then you will win (according to the analysis). And if you use even more discretion - adjusting entries, stops and targets according to the current market environment,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hey jmn, thanks for dropping by. One of the main points that this research has highlighted is that you can't trade towards a first opposite PTZ mechanically, that is by entering and placing stops at the same percentage levels between Target TZ and Base TZ every time. If you do then you will lose over time. But if you enter and place stops dynamically, at different levels each time, then you will win (according to the analysis). And if you use even more discretion - adjusting entries, stops and targets according to the current market environment,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I use h that is the smallest one to get 3%. This can be our own choice or based on Jay's trade examples. {quote} Hi Jmn, May i know the indie you mentioned ? Yes, it is very difficult to know when price will come back. This is a very important thing, this can maximize our profit, and minimize DD. So far i just know the 'star' @H4 by diceman. Using Sim/DS is another idea, but the price does not directly change its direction after the zone changes its color .... Eurusdd has a good tools to detect this retrace, but i do not know what it is...Ignored
Disliked{quote} It's just one EMA. If by "cross" you mean when price crosses it, then yes. But price doesn't have to touch it if momentum is strong. And I repeat, this may not be the best way. It was just a fairly simple technique that I could code into the analysis indicator.Ignored
Disliked{quote} It's just one EMA. If by "cross" you mean when price crosses it, then yes. But price doesn't have to touch it if momentum is strong. And I repeat, this may not be the best way. It was just a fairly simple technique that I could code into the analysis indicator.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I tracked it down in my folders, check this out. A lot of coders got involved with the "Similarity Project", as I like to call it. This stuff has a lot of merit, I did learn a lot from it. {file} kprsa created a pdf to help with the usage. I believe it is his indie. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} In that code, there is much of code commented (probably all parts of "opposite" TZ's). EDIT: not sure, i react to post with RecurrenceStatisticV4.3.ex4Ignored
Disliked{quote} In the RecurrenceStatistic code there is no mention of the opposite TZs. While there may have been people adding other stuff to it, the original code I wrote dealt only with single TZs. Cheers, k edit: the mql code is here: {file}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Oh... please forgive me, but it's very hard to recognize Your code. I have "%_B_RecurrenceStatisticV4.3_Mod.mq4", where "opposite TZ" part is commented. You answer to post, where .ex4 file is attached, You attached .mq4 file, i will to look at it. Still question is (initial proposal of TZ's) is probability same for M1 and H4(for example?).Ignored