Very nice thread and a source of much discussion with my contemporaries: a few "random" thoughts if I may chime in. I like your dictionary definition at the beginning of this thread. However in my experience, I think that most market participants are trying to achieve "certainty" and as a proxy to that they chose "predictability", thus forming the progression of thought that if a market can be predicted in even a small way, a certain amount of "certainty" can be derived, and therefore my trades are not "bets".
I am in your camp spaceduck. I do NOT believe there is any "predictability" to prices per se. However I do believe in that prices are a result of the order flow in the market and by learning to "see" that, one can derive a certain probability of success that is greater than just "random" success.
I have also noticed that very few people here consider the fact that trading is a ZERO SUM transaction. Thus, by understanding that your account only increases at the expense of someone else, you must learn to see how the loser is transacting and take the other side of his trade...To a certain degree the loser's behavior CAN be predicted and exploited especially if the loser is using the common technical analysis understanding promoted here on this forum.
That said, it is impossible to anticipate or "predict" what each and every person in a 1.5 trillion dollar per day market will do, and therefore in that sense, the market truly is random.
And to what end? Whether the market is or is NOT random, (or predictable), the true point of participating is to exploit a perceived inefficiency or pattern in price...I say HOGWASH. If you want to talk about random...this is the area where it most certainly applies. Any perceived inefficiency, whether some repeating pattern, or some "technical analysis" garbage will ultimately appear at random, and just as randomly disappear. Think of how many "methods" have come and gone from this forum...or how many EA's that seem to work well during the trial phase only to lead to unfathomable losses when used live.
Friends, this is a zero sum game. There is NO certainty and therefore no predictability in any given price action. Most of the patterns you recognize as Technical Analysis "tools" are really just self fulfilling "prophecies" that only work when the entire market is united toward the same direction...how often does THAT happen? It is not just random...it is rare.
I am in your camp spaceduck. I do NOT believe there is any "predictability" to prices per se. However I do believe in that prices are a result of the order flow in the market and by learning to "see" that, one can derive a certain probability of success that is greater than just "random" success.
I have also noticed that very few people here consider the fact that trading is a ZERO SUM transaction. Thus, by understanding that your account only increases at the expense of someone else, you must learn to see how the loser is transacting and take the other side of his trade...To a certain degree the loser's behavior CAN be predicted and exploited especially if the loser is using the common technical analysis understanding promoted here on this forum.
That said, it is impossible to anticipate or "predict" what each and every person in a 1.5 trillion dollar per day market will do, and therefore in that sense, the market truly is random.
And to what end? Whether the market is or is NOT random, (or predictable), the true point of participating is to exploit a perceived inefficiency or pattern in price...I say HOGWASH. If you want to talk about random...this is the area where it most certainly applies. Any perceived inefficiency, whether some repeating pattern, or some "technical analysis" garbage will ultimately appear at random, and just as randomly disappear. Think of how many "methods" have come and gone from this forum...or how many EA's that seem to work well during the trial phase only to lead to unfathomable losses when used live.
Friends, this is a zero sum game. There is NO certainty and therefore no predictability in any given price action. Most of the patterns you recognize as Technical Analysis "tools" are really just self fulfilling "prophecies" that only work when the entire market is united toward the same direction...how often does THAT happen? It is not just random...it is rare.