Disliked{quote} Those quotes of Rahimseven and Eurusdd you quoted are confusing to me. They are saying that it's based on price, and not bars ("there is no center bar", "it is not the bars you should count for the probability"). However, the h value is measured in bars, so you need a bar chart to measure h-transience and h-recurrence. I thought they were alluding to the idea that once a price becomes h-transient, then the next time price returns to that level it will almost surely be h-recurrent. So I built an indicator to measure that idea, and posted...Ignored
The 97% is not dealing with H-transient/recurrent bars
The 97% is based on the recurrent aspect of printed prices period. This does not jive with the fractal nature of the market. Which is really a created thing. The market is not fractal, it's the timeframes that are. Bottom line is there is no timeframe as such. Timeframes are a tool to sample or organize the ever flowing market.
You cannot use the current tools to prove 97% as fact. What you have done is proven that based on you H setting the bars are 87% recurring. This is also great indeed!
"I thought they were alluding to the idea that once a price becomes h-transient, then the next time price returns to that level it will almost surely be h-recurrent."
This was 1 idea shared as a way to think about trading after a "rare event" loss . Since it's 3% rare what's the chances it will happen again? Say you took a trade and low and behold you are hit with a rare 3% event. Well the next time the probability of this not happening again is even greater.
DislikedSo, if you find one instance on your chart where your choice of h or k did not work or price did not behave as you expected immediately, that is a rare event. There next instance is most likely to work So, do not raise your hand to the sky cursing the powers that be. Have more confidence that you will not be living to see a rare-rare event. Probability is on your side. The next instance is good to go...Ignored
But see...
You guys with the creative minds came up with a way to trades this idea by waiting for the rare event and planning the trade from it by extending it out and such. Even though you may not have capture a true rare event as i'm now understanding it.
Solutions ONLY!!!