thanks phil ,we hope he will back as soon as ,
regards
regards
The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies
"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies
Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies
Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies
Disliked{quote} Hi Fxmusa just to clarify, it is not health problems... it is up to fti if he wants to discuss what the issues are/where when he returns. he did post the issue and then removed it, this is how i know the situation, not through personal contact. regards Phil.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Let me break this down bit at a time: Need to get head round what being said a bit.... fib: 1 1 2 3 5 8 13..... each fib number is 1.618 of prior fib if I have 4 men in ( 2 1 1) * 0.618 = 2.4 --> 3 if I have 12 men in (5 3 2 1 1) * 0.618 = 7.4 --> 8 if I have 20 men in ( 8 5 3 2 1 1) * 0.618 = 12.36 --> 13 so need think BE now?Ignored
Disliked{quote} noted. Thanks for sharing. The maths is correct. I just wanted highlight the pitfalls mechanically using it. For newbies they can use that as guide. When they have internalised then is easy ABC. The mind takes over. In fact if cost is in range, errs or jumping skews has minimal effects. One knows minimum skew is a fibo. In fact in an attack scenario would be > than a double martingale. If cost was out of range, snowballing can kill book unless one have access to unlimited capital.Anyway , this not rocket science, mostly any dealer knows...Ignored
Disliked{quote} hi alexandria, thank you for the follow up. i have been tied up with stuff so may not prompt in my replies. may i ask if your post is in response to the properties of the fibo sequence or the ww table? i am a little lost as to which you are referring to. will follow up after you response.Ignored
Disliked{quote} as for the, store owner example, yep, the store owner is only interested in making a spread, but whether it is a firesale or not depends on what is the actual reason for it not selling at 5 dollars, because if it is good to sell at 2 dollars, while i can buy at 1.90, i would be interested in buying more and selling to average my losses, as there is actual demand for it, but i bought it at too high a price, while if i take an outright loss, it is $3 down the drain while the situation is salvageable. however, if it was because few people...Ignored
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well i thought of another way to speculate a non directional trade, its to buy a 3 months long straddle, while buying a 1 month long butterfly to finance the long straddle and using the time decay to work in my favour, so sort of theta hedge to my long straddle, maybe at the end of the 3months, i get enough short theta to generate an income, while if the markets just crashes, well ill be making a huge amount of money, so i created this because im working and i want to be exposed to black swan events in a good way, that is if the markets...Ignored
Disliked{quote} if you follow 1 2 5 13 for attack and 1 3 8 21 rescue, do you see that the sum of the first n term in the first seq is the value of n term in the second seq which so happens to be the ratio seq of 1,1,2 for rescueIgnored
Disliked{quote} you have put it in a interesting way. still, would just like to highlight that your point of buying more and averaging the loss - if you think of it this way i.e. if you think of the physical action of buying and selling, it is the same as taking an outright loss on $5 purchase. reason is because your accounting should be First in First Out. your first purchase at $5 which you then sell it first at $2 amount to the outright loss. then "the strategy of averaging" is simply buying your new batch of goods at $1.9 and try and sell as much as...Ignored
Disliked{quote} fib: 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 attack 1 2 5 13 rescue 1 3 8 13 5 * 1.618 -->8 8 * 1.618--> 13 8 * 0.618 --> 5 8 * 0.386-->3 8* 0.236-->2 8 * 2.618-->21 (did above that way for prettier maths) Every fib number is 1.618 * prior && 0.618 of next - using fibs gives us constant BE ratio to work from. Apply 1.618* to total of all prior numbers gives constant BE 38.2% When we have a strong trend PB will be smaller so we can adjust skew based on trend leg factors & reduce BE skipping more numbers in fib prog reduces our BE from 38.2% so could do 1 (skip...Ignored
Disliked{quote} ...... i go in with a small scout and when it feels about to burst, i add more and then wait and see it dance into a technical pattern which is in my favor and from there the campaign begins and mostly is reflex. what i have highlighted is just one particular situation on one particular day, everyday is different much like fighting a warIgnored
Disliked..... if you bought 1 share of apple at $100 on Monday, and on Tuesday it goes down to $50. somehow, you performed a super analysis and it tells you that on Wednesday, it will retrace 5% of the $50 decline, meaning the price will somehow hit $52.50. What is the number of shares you will need to purchase on Tuesday at $50 such that you will be able to sell everything on wednesday at $52.50 and break even?Ignored
Dislikedsorry friends, I having visitors try sort out some stuff for me. Still unresolved, probably soon. Any way some my friends also trying highlight something to me , maybe trying make me feel a little . anyway enjoy. hope things get back normal sometime soon. http://www.chinesedefence.com/forums...re-thread.html eeer what's you doing tom? oh, 'chasing lady bird.' A little baby duck was telling her mom. mama, did you see how fast that bird went. Ya dear, if your rear end was on fire,...Ignored
Dislikedone of our fellow frens asked me some questions and i have gotten his/her consent to response here so that others may correct me and benefit at the same time. the first question pertains to: 1.if you decide to launch skew of rescue what will be the volatilty frame of such rescue ? if i take rescue level 1 ( 1 2 3) after sending 1 scout , what will be in pips the distance between the first scout and the last rescue (3) ? there is no fixed number for the distance or the volatility. I would like to ask you not to trade with fixed numbers because it...Ignored