DislikedCan we know about the edge - not the actual strategy. For instance, if the win rate is 60% what is the pay off, what is the risk, what is the net gain over 100 trades taken etc.Ignored
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DislikedCan we know about the edge - not the actual strategy. For instance, if the win rate is 60% what is the pay off, what is the risk, what is the net gain over 100 trades taken etc.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I will be able to give that data after I have completed 100 trades with this tell. However I may have been in error to call it an "edge". It is not a mathematical or statistical edge. Rather it is a realization of an essential "truth" about the market. Thus i have information that gives me an advantage. I am currently observing the consistency of the quantified version I have created. I will later determined how to utilize it in a trading method. Think of it like a market "lie detector" measuring (quantifying) what the market does when it...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Don't say a thing man, giving proof to anyone doesn't help you at all. If you would ask me a million times "would I like to be is right on a forum, or rich", and rich would win every single time. the truth of the matter is many would never get to where you are because they don't have the frame of mind to get there, it's not that they can't get there that's the issue, the issue is they don't think there is anywhere to be gotten to in the first place. I had to break almost all the rules in the book and think of things from a whole...Ignored
Dislikedfor a minute i thought this was another "i've found the Holy Grail" thread thank god its not besides 60% is n't that high in probability and only just over 50/50 and the coin toss method 80%+ is really only to be considered high probability (imo) 90%+ is Holy Grail (according to Google searches on the subject) although apparently many big banks do regard 60% as fine, but then they know many other tricks for MM the little retailers don't good luck anyhowIgnored
Disliked{quote} So 90% is considered the holy grail I didn't know that, I thought it was more than that, well that's good. But 90 percent of what? trades, trading days? I guess it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things anyway. The only thing that is different with 60 percent - 90 percent is time. They both can makes a lot of money, but 90 percent would compound to a trillion dollars sooner Lol in other words you don't need it, and I think anyone would be fine with any figure over a couple millions Edit: I am assuming a RR of at least 1:1 for all...Ignored
Disliked{quote} i think it was 90%+ wins of all trades, but days should be fine aswell (if using a stop loss and not averaging down) before searching i also thought it would be nearer 100% or 95% at the least, but the consensus of most sensible posts and discussions seemed to be that 90% or better should be considered as the Holy Grail, in real terms its good enough and something nr everyone should be happy with (except perfectionists) presumably it is 1:1+, otherwise it won't be so profitable overall regardless of the high W/L (although cant quite remember...Ignored
Disliked{quote} so what is it??.. there is no point in mentioning it if your not going to reveal it.Ignored
Dislikedlol @ those thinking that a win rate of 60% is not high If you had a 1:1 payoff at 60% you could make ridiculous amount of money, those saying it isn't a high probability need to catch themselves on. With such a high win rate you can up the risk. At a 60% chance of winning every trade the probability of you losing 5 trades in a row is 1 in 100, take that out further to 10 losing trades in a row and you have you are talking about probability of 1 in 10,000. At 5% risk you could expect to lose 50% of your account 1 in 10,000 times. So if you can up...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I think we need to know trade frequency also to calculate risk of ruin? but yeah win rate on it's own means absolutely nothingIgnored
Disliked{quote} I gave you all the only hint I'm willing to give for now. As I've already mentioned, I am currently forward testing and observing. I seriously doubt that I would post a "system" here anyway. I strongly believe that each person has their own unique way of looking at the market. Thus my method would only end up confusing and frustrating both teacher and students. Besides all I've mentioned here is a "tell" not a method, system, or edge. It is a market "truth"...something the market MUST do to change direction and I've found a way to quantify...Ignored
Disliked{quote} agree, and the op hasn't even tested it for 100 live trades yet.... but declares it a solid edge.... counting ones chickens before they have hatched I would guessIgnored
DislikedHi, After 11 years hard slog at the coal face you have now found "your edge" - well done. If you want to give something back then can i suggest you trade your edge, and donate 10% of your income to whatever charity is close to your heart. DO NOT give your edge away on any FX forum to some lazy so and so who are looking for a free lunch !!!!!!!! Again, a lot of respect to someone who has put the time and effort in, so that they have enough knowledge and experience to be on top of this business.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Ditto! That there are tells is probably enough information to give away. I like to help people see things about the forex rather than give them actual methods and techniques that I use. Actually, I believe they are better off.Ignored
QuoteDislikedLook hard and you will see what is hidden.
QuoteDislikedA delicate secret
DislikedAfter almost 11 years of study and failure and more study with some "limited" success, I believe I have stumbled upon something that produces a "true" edge. The market has a very consistent "tell". For those of you who have never played poker, a "tell" is some type of action that many people do with they lie. It is unconscious for the most part, and unless you are made aware of it, it can give away your thoughts to the observant opponent. I believe I've found the market's unconscious "tell". Very subtle yet undeniable thing it does when it is about...Ignored