DislikedI have turned my interest to Natural Gas after some failures with GOLD, I cannot help it but it seems to me that whatever news that comes out, has nothing to do with price movements of Natural Gas. I believe that the price movements form the news. For example, Investing.com keeps talking about mild weather, which I think is suggesting seasonal trading. This would mean that as it gets hotter, the price of Nat Gas decreases, which is a lets say 90% correlation. In short, I do not think that weather has such impact on the price of Nat Gas. Also, if...Ignored
As far as NG trading goes, you should be aware in case you're not already that a) they call it the widowmaker and b) they call it the widowmaker.
At the moment bulls reckon that even though record injections may manifest themselves during the injection season, they won't be enough to replenish supplies.
The bears are sceptical, see the whole thing as just another ruse by Goldman Sachs et al to squeeze energy prices beyond the fundamentals and fleece the consumer, and reckon record injections are coming, and that they will be enough to replenish depleted supplies.
Trying to trade NG on a 15 min basis is asking for trouble IMO but if it works for you, great.
You also need to be aware of when NG is in contango and when it is backwardated. Generally you should be disposed to longs when it's in backwardation and to shorts when it's in contango but if you're scalping based on 15 minute candles I don't suppose it makes that much difference.
There's lots of stuff, weekly rig counts, depletion rates, how quickly capped wells can be brought back on stream, coal as a competing source, etc. etc. but in the end really I don't have much of a clue myself and it would take forever to try to model all of this but that hasn't stopped me speculating. So far it's working but it always works until it doesn't.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.