This is going to be, just like the name of the forum, a journal of my trading. I hold a regular job and trading (only real money please) part time. This journal is meant to learn from my own mistakes. I will try to talk about my expectation in the coming days for a particular pair, trades that I have already taken and wisdom that I have gathered elsewhere - basically anything to make me a better chartist and trader. Calls will be made, sometimes live, but the focus is to learn from my own mistakes later on when I (or someone else) look back on a chart. I look at all time frames (M15 and higher mostly). I am a discretionary trader (no MTs) and use bollinger bands, psychological levels, S/R (including moving averages), candlestick patterns and an oscillator (although I hardly look at it, stochastics for the most part). So thanks for dropping by. Let me start of with my outlook for AUD-USD for the first week of January.
First, to get a quick view of what is going on let us look at the daily. The down channel from Oct is intact and the pair seems to be retracting from the BB mean.
H4 seems to be going flat for several days now and usually a signal for a slight move up.
I thought the pair was going down by looking at H1 where it formed a double top (vertical line). My profit taking time frame was 15 minutes so I got lucky but the double top failed.
Now the weekly is still on but it is green at the moment (and at a potential double bottom area)
The downward trend gets into trouble if the weekly closes above the current level. But 4 hourly wants to touch something higher it seems. Given the confluence of the psychological 90 (horizontal yellow line), 200 EMA and SMA, and upper bollinger bands on H4, I think they will act as magnet for the price to rise up. But I am bearish on this pair and don't see the weekly breaking this trend. So in the remaining two days of this week I see the pair moving up to 90 but then quickly dropping from there so as to close the week red. If instead the week closes green then the weekly double bottom becomes a possibility and that changes the perspective completely.
I will follow this pair and short if the pair touches the 90. Depending on the PA I might also trade quick pips upwards on its journey to 90. However, I will trade a very small position if the pair does not behave as expected and instead keeps going down without touching 90. My target will be 8750 (level + weekly low Aug '13).
First, to get a quick view of what is going on let us look at the daily. The down channel from Oct is intact and the pair seems to be retracting from the BB mean.
H4 seems to be going flat for several days now and usually a signal for a slight move up.
I thought the pair was going down by looking at H1 where it formed a double top (vertical line). My profit taking time frame was 15 minutes so I got lucky but the double top failed.
Now the weekly is still on but it is green at the moment (and at a potential double bottom area)
The downward trend gets into trouble if the weekly closes above the current level. But 4 hourly wants to touch something higher it seems. Given the confluence of the psychological 90 (horizontal yellow line), 200 EMA and SMA, and upper bollinger bands on H4, I think they will act as magnet for the price to rise up. But I am bearish on this pair and don't see the weekly breaking this trend. So in the remaining two days of this week I see the pair moving up to 90 but then quickly dropping from there so as to close the week red. If instead the week closes green then the weekly double bottom becomes a possibility and that changes the perspective completely.
I will follow this pair and short if the pair touches the 90. Depending on the PA I might also trade quick pips upwards on its journey to 90. However, I will trade a very small position if the pair does not behave as expected and instead keeps going down without touching 90. My target will be 8750 (level + weekly low Aug '13).
The price will go where it has to go.