Disliked{quote} Hi Alfonso, All the the reasons to go short are there, but looking at NZD against some other majors, it is high on quit some. Would you still say this trade has higher odds?Ignored
I just trade what I see on my charts, dealing with each particular pair as a unique entity, sometimes correlations don't work! $index correlation is key (it fails as well, but it's key). If you look at the EURNZD chart
H4 chart:
- There is nothing fresh and original that can stop EURNZD from dropping after absorbing previous demand and lows
- This is lowest low made the last day, and current price
- The D1 demand seen on the H4 chart is fresh and original right at the non-fresh H4 demand, so we can't set and forget on H4, not fresh
D1 chart:
- Fresh supply CP that broken lower and took out D1 demand
- There is a original D1 demand CP which will probably make price react
- This D1 demand CP is against the D1 trend. We can't set & forget because of that reason, and because there is no fresh AND original H4 level within
- D1 fresh demand caused a nice imbalance. This is the only place I can see price could react, but since it's counter-trend on D1, we need a fresh and original level on H4, it's not availble so we can't set & forget
- Compressed demand on the D1, everything is a reaction to previous areas with those candle's tails
Weekly chart:
- After breaking a support area, price is dropping lower. There is nothing to stop it till Monthly demand, very low around 1.5200
- We're reacting to last month low (red beads on W1 chart), hopefully it will be taken out
With this "objective" analysis, what would I like to do? SELL
The H4 supply I want to use respects the H4 TL, right at fresh D1 proximal supply area. So that's my entry for now. There are others a bit higher
Hope it makes sense to you!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community