Nice looking trade there Split.
What's your portfolio look like these days?
What's your portfolio look like these days?
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DislikedNice looking trade there Split. What's your portfolio look like these days?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi Infinity, Most of my portfolio is in cash at this point. However, the part of it that isn't is in: The DXJ and large positions in oil companies. I was able to catch that rally in oil, and I expect oil stocks to out perform should oil hold higher. A normal sized position in SWHC. Most other positions were liquidated into this rally. I was also short the AUD/USD and gold a while ago and exited as the R/R diminished. I might re-assert a short position in AUD/USD at some point. I don't think that commodities have bottomed yet and neither...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I also own DXJ and a number of individual equities. If I find the time, i'll post up a similar pie chart of what I have, although it's hard to incorporate short positions into a nice pie chart! hehehe. I probably have more bonds than most people as I think the back-up in rates has gone too far (for instance bought MUB for a trade and have been long 2yr & 5yr Morgan Stanley debt). Just glancing at my exposure screen on interactive brokers, my taxable PA is overweight cash as well. I'm 14% short (Short position divided by total portfolio equity),...Ignored
Disliked{quote} ... and neither do I think that the financial bubble in China is over, authorities over there are only prolonging the inevitable bust. ...{image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} split_unit, my friend. yes, i am thinking the same. we all know that china will explode, the question is WHEN? actually, if there is one market i personally will (and have already) invest, is greece. stock market has plummet dramatically and nobody expects anything. as a longterm-investment with multiple entries, you clearly have a beautiful reward over the next years...Ignored
Disliked{quote} The only time I see it happening in China is when: a.government intervention fails to have any affect; b. if government fails to intervene all together. I totally agree with you, Greece is very attractive. I was seriously contemplating going long FEZ during the last pullback but missed the move unfortunately. Btw your post on here in this thread won't be forgotten. That was an awesome call.Ignored
Disliked{quote} well, yes. i have been to china myself last year to figure out investment opportunities for some clients. mainly around the chengdu & kunming area. that said, i have a big respect for the chinese and their government, but something is simmering there. never i would invest my own money there. as you said it is the government which controls everything, even the economic figures. if china blasts, the 2008-movements will be just a smooth breeze in the eye of a hurricane...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Aserbfx! You know I sometimes log onto forex factory just to see if you've added any attachments (i.e. charts). I don't follow that thread you post to b/c there is a lot of noise in there, but I always liked your posts. I think I dropped a char of SRCL in there for you a while back, not sure i you ever saw it. Anyhow, keep up the good work. Split -- Couldn't agree more on having shorts in a rising market...it's been painful. I'm down to two shorts at this point: RSX & CHE. The former for fundamental reasons (corruption, rule of law, capital...Ignored
"Like a Walker (what zombies are called in the show), the market’s body has been riddled with countless bullets and wounds such as fiscal cliff tax increases and the sequester, along with international headwinds like Europe’s recession and slowing growth in China. But it just keeps on going."
1. We get a sharp up move on god knows what reason, freezes out all the weak hands and makes them regret they weren't able to enter earlier. They then enter late, push prices higher where prices saturate and head lower for either a pullback or correction.
2. We get a pullback or correction (depending on the catalyst) and head lower where the decline meets strong demand. This process shakes out all weak hands and we see another leg higher.
Disliked{quote}
Yeah lol no shorts were incorporated on to that pie chart because I have no shorts on, at the moment. Its hard to be short with any conviction with the SPY breaking out on to all time highs. Being short in a bull market is a very hard thing. One of the prerequisites I look at when developing a short thesis is to look at Companies that are either:
1. In a bubble - AAPL
2. Industry/sector decline - GDX
3. Fraud case - HPQ (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...y-plc-business):...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Michael Santoli (former Barron's Columnist who I find to be a very good read) agrees w/ the above comments and goes into some depth about the plight of short-sellers this year: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/micha...175844113.html I would push back on AAPL a bit -- Yes, at $700 maybe that's a bubble, but where it is now, the market is pricing in a huge decelleration in their business. With a $416bn market cap and about $150bn of cash on their balance sheeet, their Enterprise value is $286bn....Ignored
Disliked{quote} No lol, I never meant it was a bubble at this point. God only knows whether it bottomed out or not. I meant to use it as an example to stocks I look to short "stocks that are in a bubble" like AAPL back in 2012. But not today obviously, the R/R has diminished considerably for shorts at this point. And as you rightly pointed out, the stock is clearly undervalued.Ignored
DislikedHere's a look at the IRA. Probably have too many positions as of this writing. A few of the smaller ones are test positions to see how they do before I add-on to a full position size. I'll get around to doing a similar chart for my taxable account. {image}Ignored
DislikedI discuss how I do my position sizing in these two posts - First on on Position sizing (Post #22) on this page: http://bit.ly/1e27xCE Position Sizing - Part 2 (first post on the page) http://bit.ly/16b8MhU That's in a perfect world -- In reality I have other factors I have to consider to determine the likely volatility/potential of hitting my stop/etc, plus a minimum holding period. These minimums are imposed by my employer, that I HAVE to hold the position a minimum of 30-days. This last case is when i use the test positions...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Cool, thanks for the detailed post. Your size is abit too big for my liking, I usually limit my largest positions to 5% of AUM. However, I do make some exceptions. I remember that JAZZ was getting alot of attention some 8-12 months ago, and I never really looked at it so I thought it would be interesting to know what the story was. At these levels I feel the market is getting a bit frothy, its very hard for me to get long or even look at anything, except for stocks like POT. POT a stock in the agricultural industry just had a major 2 day...Ignored