[quote=billytt;6384815]
You are right that you can use historical charts to design a method for trading. It is definately helpful to go through historical charts to see what important news and outside factors have caused the markets to do. I think the decision for the trader is are we going to be fundamental traders or technical traders. I am discussing a purely technical method of trading. It is a method that is cut and dried. There is none of the ambiguity of fundamental trading. You bring up weather and oil. A weather forecast that might make the price of oil rise based on today's supply and demand picture might make the price drop with another set of supply demand variables. The fundamental trader in my estimation must be very adept at guaging the market's sentiment with respect to all possible outside variables. Again one piece of news might make the price rise today while the same piece of news might make it go down in a different situation. The method I suggest is simple and direct, no interpretation needed. I trade lines on a chart (prices) I don't care what the fundamental factors are. If I am wrong in my trade the market will tell me and I will reverse.
I know that some are very successful with fundamental trading methods. I am not that smart. It has to be simple for me to do it. To each his own.
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i disagree with the opposition to back testing,Firstly in one sense as you say it serves no purpose as it is very easy to adjust ones trading to fit in with the past.But it is real history stick a chart up with the weather ie oil see what happened, check what happened if any unrest in the world. check inside bars for instance see how they perform over time and doing this you can see odds and percentages of it doing it again. and yes you'll learn better using real money and lots of it ie not micro lotsIgnored
You are right that you can use historical charts to design a method for trading. It is definately helpful to go through historical charts to see what important news and outside factors have caused the markets to do. I think the decision for the trader is are we going to be fundamental traders or technical traders. I am discussing a purely technical method of trading. It is a method that is cut and dried. There is none of the ambiguity of fundamental trading. You bring up weather and oil. A weather forecast that might make the price of oil rise based on today's supply and demand picture might make the price drop with another set of supply demand variables. The fundamental trader in my estimation must be very adept at guaging the market's sentiment with respect to all possible outside variables. Again one piece of news might make the price rise today while the same piece of news might make it go down in a different situation. The method I suggest is simple and direct, no interpretation needed. I trade lines on a chart (prices) I don't care what the fundamental factors are. If I am wrong in my trade the market will tell me and I will reverse.
I know that some are very successful with fundamental trading methods. I am not that smart. It has to be simple for me to do it. To each his own.