Week of 10 Dec 2012 projections (pl see prev posts for context):
1.2874
1.2952
Note: experimental - do not trade based solely on these projections
1.2874
1.2952
Note: experimental - do not trade based solely on these projections
EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies
DislikedWeek of 10 Dec 2012 projections (pl see prev posts for context):
1.2874
1.2952
Note: experimental - do not trade based solely on these projectionsIgnored
DislikedI wonder how reliable is extrapolating data from oanda's costumers......I mean in real terms they are a very small portion of retail....and retail doesn't move the market.
i suppose the question is how representative are they of the market?Ignored
Disliked
I wonder how you came about your projection.....that 1.2874 seems very much like my mean for the next 16 days.....I am not sure however we come about targets the same wayIgnored
DislikedHere you go..
Look what happen when everybody & Pavlov's Dogs are long here..
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and here..
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DislikedHere you go..
Look what happen when everybody & Pavlov's Dogs are long here..
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and here..
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DislikedHi - I don't quite know myself either
As I said in the start posts, this is a black box neural net based projection system that is "supposed" to provide a safe trading range for the specified period, which has a "v high" chance of being met. The figures I post are raw numbers out of the system - it does not provide any reasoning or analysis, just these sets of figures.
The lo/ hi projections are meant to represent "a" safe trading zone (there will be others during the period, I am sure). These are not targets that won't...Ignored
Dislikedok I will try as simple as I can
when you take the euro returns it resembles a normal distribution correct with heavy tails. usually on a normal distribution , you get the mean and median at 0.
to make price simulation you need to turn the normal distribution curve into a log normal that is done with this formula
price*e^( drift*time + standard deviation*sqrt(time)* random normally distributed numbers)
this is how you simulate potential closing price for the next 16 days....why 16 because the trading month has about 21 days so we...Ignored
Dislikedwhat beta are you using? that is a subjective variable with a potentially huge impactIgnored
Dislikedwell, at least be careful with those...i attached a chart showing that it's not always wise to be contrary to retail...It all depends.
PS. i used to focus a lot on those and had the same mindset as you do. In time, i figured out that a lot of things can be evened out. Trading's not that simple...The book works like everything else...until it doesn't...and then it does again...Ignored
Dislikedok I will try as simple as I can
when you take the euro returns it resembles a normal distribution correct with heavy tails. usually on a normal distribution , you get the mean and median at 0.
to make price simulation you need to turn the normal distribution curve into a log normal that is done with this formula
price*e^( drift*time + standard deviation*sqrt(time)* random normally distributed numbers)
this is how you simulate potential closing price for the next 16 days....why 16 because the trading month has about 21 days so we...Ignored
DislikedHey lumesh..
Of course, things don't always work out that way & everything we see is subjective.. it all depends on how we use & interpret what we see as all of us have different mindsets & methods to skin the cat..
but one can't expect to make a dime in this business thinking & doing things like the conventional crowd..
"black cat white cat as long as it catches mice it is a good cat"..Deng Xiaoping
http://ih1.redbubble.net/work.185145...ite-cat-v1.pngIgnored
DislikedThanks for the explain - thats very well thought out and based on solid analysis. Unlike the neural approach. I am sure with your stat backgrnd you already know this - neural nets, in general, use cyclic error propogation between some input data set and desired outcome that needs to be mapped, and try to 'model' a function that will minimize the global error between the desired output and the input. This 'function' can be thought to be stored within the system state after desired number of training iterations are done and/ or global error is at...Ignored
DislikedIt's not a dream brother, he already has one :-)
I'm all for dreaming, but one has to be able to admit your mistakes and take criticism...Ignored
DislikedIf you cant explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." Albert Einstein
I'm done now.Ignored
DislikedNO !!
Please refer to....
"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex.... it takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." Albert Einstein
Then I might add...... "You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else" Albert Einstein
OK... I'm just on an Einstein roll for a minute. But really... just establish your trading rules and trade it ????...Ignored