DislikedI agree that the technical argument for continued Euro weakness is not strong. With the near reversal of the may-june fall, technically it looks like the strong down trend that has been in place since May 2011 is over. PA shows strength as well with a persistent and steady rise that is indicative of a trend movement.
As a target I really like 1.3500 for a number of reasons including its strength as a SR, its position at roughly the mid point of the movement from 1.49XX-1.20xx and its status as a round number.
However this is probably the...Ignored
Excellent post Aaron. I also see many technicals now pointing to the upside, however, it goes against the fundamentals which is why most are confused. However, I have noticed that fundamentals do not have an "immediate" affect on currencies which is why I would rather lean towards the technical side the for Swing trading. Maybe if I didn't have a SL and was a position trader I would start building short positions and if price moved against me to let's say 1.35 or so it wouldn't affect me as I would be prepared for this draw down.
However, as a Swing trader I would rather bank the few hundred pips up and then ride it back down when my charts tell me to do so. On top of that, I don't see any major "market crash" before the end of the year which is also why I am leaning towards the upside at this time.
Another problem is the large amount of retail traders who are short EUR/USD. They need to be kicked out first with some sort of squeeze. When everybody says SELL I buy...
1.3122 is still my short term target for EUR/USD where it will form a triple top. I will see how price actiion reacts at that point. Still not long or short EUR/USD though. Playing other pairs that are more "predictable" and profitable for me...