Dislikedi guess the room leader lost all his money on martingale hence no answers, You have to do it right. take careIgnored
I have been busy....and no i did not lose all my money....
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Dislikedi guess the room leader lost all his money on martingale hence no answers, You have to do it right. take careIgnored
Dislikedhanover,
the initial risk is only 0.16 % and if you look at any M15 chart with the freebie-template, you will not find a single day where you would not have at least 1 profitable trade 1:1 Risk/'Reward.
The progression would be 0.16 % , 0.32 % , 0.64 % and at least
then TP would be hit.Ignored
DislikedIt simply is impossible to lose with this combination of freebie-system and martingale.Ignored
DislikedBut just because something has not occurred in the past, can you say with 100% certainty that it will not occur in the future?Ignored
QuoteDislikedI don't believe that any system is infallible. Hence when people say things like "it is impossible to lose" I have to query their experience. There is a possible "worst case" price action pattern that will defeat any system. With martingale, the pattern needs to occur only once; the trader is open to unlimited loss.
QuoteDislikedIf a trading method is 100% guaranteed infallible, you have to wonder why everybody isn't using it. If infallible systems are freely available in the public domain, why is it that the vast majority of traders lose?
DislikedI'm not familiar with the mechanics of the freebie system, so I can't comment. I've recommended it merely on the basis of dredding82's reputation, and the highly positive comments throughout the freebie thread.
But at 0.16% initial risk it would take only 9 consecutive losses to cause irretrievable drawdown. At 1:1 RR, even with a 60% win rate, the probability of encountering 9 consecutive losses in any 500 trade sequence is around 12%. At 65% win rate (that's a PF of 1.86) this diminishes to ~4%; even that would be way outside my comfort...Ignored
Dislikedhanover,
the initial risk is only 0.16 % and if you look at any M15 chart with the freebie-template, you will not find a single day where you would not have at least 1 profitable trade 1:1 Risk/'Reward.
The progression would be 0.16 % , 0.32 % , 0.64 % and at least
then TP would be hit.
It simply is impossible to lose with this combination of freebie-system and martingale.Ignored
Disliked@dredding82:
Just wanted to post this link, which gives at least a dozen reasons why Martingale is mathematical lunacy.
I can't believe that anybody who is serious about long-term survival as a trader would entertain using any kind of martingale. Whatever past testing might have demonstrated, you can not impose your own forecast on how the market will move in the future. If your calculated ranges are exceeded by just one 'black swan' event martingale leaves...Ignored
DislikedI do not ban people i know...just people that keep comparing trading to flipping a coin.....Ignored
DislikedThis is not about the systems i have posted...this about how to use martingale....with Money Management.....Ignored
Disliked.01 .02 .08 .16 .32 .64 1.28 2.56 5.12 10.24 20.48 40.96 81.92 = 13 tradesIgnored
DislikedCan you say with 100% certainty that no meteorite will fall on your head ?
Or that you will have no car accident ?
Then you shouldn´t use your car anymore.Ignored
Dislikedthe probability of 13 consecutive losses in any 500 trade sequence is ~19%Ignored
DislikedThen your annual return (assuming 250 trading days per year) is 1.0001^250 = 1.0253, i.e. 2.5% per year. But, to be fair, this increases significantly if the number of trades per day > 1.Ignored
DislikedPlease see the above post...where i said you will have 12 possible trades ....So what are the odds of losing 13 consecutive trades in any 12 trade sequence with a win rate of 45%. Also please show your math for this "~19%"Ignored
DislikedSeems the best banks in the USA are only offering a 0.75%APY-1.01%APY for accounts $10,000 to $24,999
So 2.5% seems pretty good in my book.....Ignored
DislikedAlso in theory your win rate is 100%.....This is martingale we are talking about lolIgnored
DislikedNot sure how you arrive at that conclusion.
If the win rate was 100% (for each individual trade), you could safely risk your entire account on every trade!
But then you'd need to start a new thread.
Hey, if you want to trade martingale, that's cool. It's your money.Ignored
DislikedI was joking....but as you can see its almost impossible to lose 12 trades in a row..
.Ignored
DislikedFamous last words,
Go make your martingale millions then come back when you have some solid proof.Ignored
DislikedIts basic math...........
If you do not know the laws of probability...........then you do not have a shot in understanding...........
But i will tell you this......even if you use a risk to reward......you are using a MARTINGALE system.............Ignored