Today we start off the week with a relatively slow news day with just one high impact item at 8:00 GMT from Germany. The data we get today is the German ifo Business Climate index which is based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers. It is expected to be around 102.6 which would be a slight improvement from last month’s 102.3. This index has been on the decline since it peaked out at 114.5 in June 2011 after hitting a low of 82 in February 2009. The last time it was at these levels was back in June 2010. After the dismal PMI numbers out of the EuroZone (with the exception of the German ones) as a whole last Thursday, it seems even more important now that Germany produces a good number today. Failing that, I feel that confidence will erode very fast. A good number would be expected at this stage so the risk is more to the downside.
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