keep the faith merlin, don't chicken out before my target is met!!!
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Quoting IsotonicDislikedkeep the faith merlin, don't chicken out before my target is met!!!Ignored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedthe jun 06 contract has gone past 0.25% for the yen so expect a rate hike within the next 4 weeks...you heard it hear first people!!! (i hope i don't have to eat this words though if i'm wrong though! : )Ignored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedusd still flat at 5.25 for jun. here is the jun 06 cot chart.
the smart traders are the larger traders (green line)..volume on the up, yen being accumulated.
i think you could hold out for more merlin...you've waited 6 months now so don't bail out too soon!!!Ignored
Quoting merlinDislikedi gotta stick my neck out, in spite of the fedfund futures, and say bernanke will hold rates. its dependent on the data though, lets see what ppi and cpi have in store for us this week. if they are tame i expect at least a one-meeting pause.Ignored
Quoting merlinDislikednice, where did you get that COT indicator?Ignored
Quoting merlinDislikedits dependent on the data though, lets see what ppi and cpi have in store for us this week. if they are tame i expect at least a one-meeting pause.Ignored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedsee post 238 - i said around 107...Ignored
Quoting IsotonicDislikedwhy bother having an opinion at all, just see what the futures are doing!?!Ignored
Quoting dnashDisliked1) Can anyone give any insight as to why an interest rate hike will sometimes increase or decrease a currency's value?
2) Is my basic understanding of the Japanese economy and the Yen anywhere close to being correct?Ignored
Quoting DarkstarDisliked1) Interest rates are only one component of an exchange rate. Many other factors can and will contribute to a price move. It is also highly dependant on what the expectation for a rate change is. If the majority of players are expecting a 50bp move and a 25bp occurs, the currency will fall. Likewise a surprise rate increase will cause the currency value to rise.
In short, your looking at a single (fairly arbitrary) data point. You need to add the context that the data points fits into to determine what kind of effect it will engender.
2) Yes.Ignored