DislikedOf course you can apply coin toss probability concept to it. The future outcome is independent from the past ones. And as you pointed out, if it were dependent on the last one, it very likely would result in another loss due to emotional imbalance (thus leading to an even higher likelihood of a loss in the next trade).
But when leaving emotions out, the odds of each trade being a winner is 75%, no matter how many times he won or lost before that. Read a statistics book to understand the difference better between connected events and unconnected...Ignored
I understand Stat's very well, we've already established that the traders emotional state can affect the outcome of the next trade, therefore there connected, trading is not a coin toss.
The method in use could be breaking down and cause 10losses in a row.
Ofcourse you could have a 90% win rate, if you factored out the emotional issue, which drops you to 75% in reality.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!