Just got this through
Daily Forex Brief
London: Monday 5th March 2012
The immovable Greek hurdle
For all the compromises and delays on Greece, nothing can stand in the way of the upcoming bond redemption on 20th March which will force events this week on the private sector participation negotiations which started over four months ago. Thursday evening is the deadline for responses, but reports suggest that take-up has been sluggish. Greece needs to see at least 66% participation, at which point so-called collective action clauses could be activated, imposing the deal on the remainder. If this is level is not achieved, then the whole deal would be off and Greece will face default. We're likely to get ongoing reports and rumours on this during the week, keeping markets nervous. Furthermore, there are some reports that the troika (ECB, EU, IMF) believes that a third Greek bail-out may be necessary by 2015, because the country will be unable to return to market financing at this point.