Some NFP numbers for your consideration
Written by Adam Button
February 2, 2012 at 20:59 GMT
Guessing non-farm payrolls is a total crapshoot. If economic data is news, NFP is the National Enquirer.
But it moves the market, so here is the final data to consider when making your estimate in the ForexLive NFP contest.
Bloomberg median +140K
Reuters median +150K
MNI median +130K
Prior three months: 200K, 100K, 110K
Initial jobless claims four-week moving avg 375.8 vs 374K at the end of Dec.
Challenger January job cuts -53.5 vs 18-year avg of -101K
Challenger noted that govt layoffs were lower than the recent trend, suggesting an upside to the -15K estimate for government payrolls
ISM manufacturing employment component 54.3 vs 54.8 in Dec (six-month avg at 54.1)
ADP +170K vs +292K in Dec
Chicago PMI employment 54.7 vs 59.2 prior
Consumer confidence ‘jobs hard to get’ 43.5% vs 41.6% in Dec
My favorite is the ISM non-manufacturing employment component but it won’t be released until next week.
But the number that really matters: the ForexLive contest median estimate — +141K (avg 136K)
Written by Adam Button
February 2, 2012 at 20:59 GMT
Guessing non-farm payrolls is a total crapshoot. If economic data is news, NFP is the National Enquirer.
But it moves the market, so here is the final data to consider when making your estimate in the ForexLive NFP contest.
Bloomberg median +140K
Reuters median +150K
MNI median +130K
Prior three months: 200K, 100K, 110K
Initial jobless claims four-week moving avg 375.8 vs 374K at the end of Dec.
Challenger January job cuts -53.5 vs 18-year avg of -101K
Challenger noted that govt layoffs were lower than the recent trend, suggesting an upside to the -15K estimate for government payrolls
ISM manufacturing employment component 54.3 vs 54.8 in Dec (six-month avg at 54.1)
ADP +170K vs +292K in Dec
Chicago PMI employment 54.7 vs 59.2 prior
Consumer confidence ‘jobs hard to get’ 43.5% vs 41.6% in Dec
My favorite is the ISM non-manufacturing employment component but it won’t be released until next week.
But the number that really matters: the ForexLive contest median estimate — +141K (avg 136K)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it