WOW!! i have never seen this before :'' $EURCHF client positioning shows # of traders long outnumber those short by MASSIVE 27.5 to 1''. i guess this is an all-time record
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GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies
Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies
EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply
Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies
"From Dow Jones: "Barclays Capital is looking to buy EUR/CHF weakness towards 1.2020, and against the SNB's 1.20 floor. Topside, a break above 1.2150 would encourage the bank to add to its fresh longs, looking for a move to 1.22 and then 1.2245. BarCap also notes that a higher close for the cross late Tuesday, after settling around 1.2053 Monday, would post a bullish divergence warning. EUR/CHF is now at 1.2054."
DislikedI think a possible thing can be like this:
1) the SNB is actually not buying nothing, everybody know about this 1.20 floor and as soon as pair go near it, new traders, banks, hedgefunds etc. buy, buy buy buy, making the floor valid even without the SNB buying nothing.
what will happen maybe, once there will be no more buyers, the pair will inevitably drop, making a huge long squeeze (many buyers if not most of them will have margin calls), price may drop 200-400-1000 pips!
Once the pair will be down, with most buyers stopped out, the SNB...Ignored
DislikedI do not know if retail traders can sue SNB for giving misleading information or not . The SNB has given a confirmation that it would defend the 1.20 peg , and if the pair goes under the 1.20 , retail traders will sue the SNB for giving them a confirmation and a misleading misleading information ( when they said they would defend the 1.20 )
I think the SNB may announce in the coming time a new peg at 1.25s , so it make short sellers lose their huge money .
Lets wait and see what happen .Ignored
DislikedNew minimum, and short covering after EU session close. Like yesterdayIgnored
DislikedBecause of what? Nobody will sue the SNB. That's total - sorry - bullshit.Ignored
Dislikedas a bank I would try to sue them for giving misleading information. they cant do what they want. if it breaks, they have to announce they set the peg to e.g. 1.10Ignored
DislikedWrong. They can do what they want. And they will.
Their only problem is credibility. Credibility is one of the main assets of each central bank. The easiest way of conducting monetary policy is to bring the market to the point at which it does what you (as a central bank) want. So you don't have to do it yourself. But that doesn't work if you don't have any credibility.Ignored
DislikedTwo main problems with this analysis:
if the SNB intervenes before the peg is broken, then the short speculators will take a big hit and it will be much harder for them to challenge the SNB again.Ignored