DislikedHow do you stay in this trade?
The squat shows a lot of strenth, but it fails on almost just as much volume.
The hourly shows accumulation at the bottom, and heavy absorption at resistance the past 2 days. So background is major strength, but that doesnt mean that the market can't retrace. So I got out.
I always watch my trades like a hawk. Many times I will stop my self out and it will eventually go my way. Other times it was the right decision. Whats your guys view on just letting the market take you out vs. taking yourself out? Is it just...Ignored
This is why I hate the term trend as it is all relative to what TF you are looking at... myself I trade intraday mainly 5 and 15 min charts and if the day decides to be an upday... great I will long despite the fact that the 4 hr chart shows a downtrend...
All that being said and having nothing to do with what you asked I will continue...
I trust my trades 100%, 98% of the time (yes there are times when I say holy f^&k what was I thinking and close out a trade before TP or SL is hit. I always trade 2 lots with the first one going for 1:1 and lot 2 trailing SL with the market. I either get stopped out by the market at my original SL or my moved SL unless I get an UHV countersignal that makes me think shorts may be in order I will either really tighten my SL or just close out.
The other thing I will offer my 2 cents on is your entry. Personally I would never short a NS after "stopping volume" as it has not been proven yet. The lower wick on that bar could've just as easily been tested and taken out the same as we see with UT's in an up"trend". The increased volume needs to be tested again to be proven and we need to see some buying first to show that it was stopping and not absorption. The NS also closed lower than the previous bar and had way too much upper wick and too low of a close.
The test bar was also a bit ugly as it a lot of upper wick also and not high enough of a close. Also what is the bar testing? The close? Nope. The high? Nope we are still below the high... we are also well above the low and also the 50% level. The test to me was of no real value as it wasn't in a rising market and no real strength was yet confirmed.
The way things played out was pretty well to be expected... we saw the initial push up culminating in that WRB... so now we have seen buyers at work, we are above the high of the stopping volume so now we can say the stopping has been confirmed but not tested. We also see the initial resistance right at the low of the bar you marked which again makes sense... stopping volume alone wasn't enough steam to take out that bar... yes that next bar was squatty based on spread but again the close was on the low with upper wick so this volume while represntative of buyers squishing sellers there's still too much supply...
Then we get a couple of UHV Ut's / effort to rise into that "news" bar low, both with lots of upper wick showing the demand / supply battle that is ongoing. The good thing is when you closed your long you didn't jump in short off the UT's... to much indecision at the moment.
Another lower volume UT which is where you got out. The next bar is an increased volume downbar closing off it's lows... the nice thing here is we couldn't make a lower low than the test bar on signifigant increase in volume / effort... next bar is up. As you will see the next 3 bars are up and on decreasing volume and we now easily take out the low of that bar...
The best thing about all of this is where that stopping volume printed... 15min chart theres a WR downbar on UHV that printed after LO who's 50% level was where we found support (oh and the low of that WR upbar 2 bars later also on UHV, confluence)...
I have looked at this area again and again and discussed it with some other trader and I just can't find a decent entry to get you in that portion of the upmove...
Wow sorry for being so long winded and getting off the topic of your question...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!