DislikedLluna, I checked your recent posts and I'm trying to do a similar analysis. Do you thinkt abou this analysis I just do?
Entry after UT, Stop Loss over ND.Ignored
The main point is that the trend is up, so we do not want to sell an up trend, we want to buy.
From WW structure the PSY area has volumen, and so has BC, so they could be PSY and BC, however the AR shall be pierced and then retested to go short on an up trend...
From a more general point of view we may realize that PSY level (13519) was friday hi. So we had a closed segment on the form of a V... a good place to look for shorts, however, price never gave a signal to short and it mover up to BC... So ¿why would any one (BB) be interested in closing a segment, and then, instead of making an UT and reversing short on the trap, keep moving the price higher till the BC area?
Now lets go through some numbers.
1. We have a wide spread up bar closing the V segment from friday's hi with volume.
2. We have a narrow spread down bar with quite interesting volume, but hold on, if some one was selling up there, ¿how could the spread be so narrow? May be the amateurs were selling there and BB were buying holding the prices above the closed segment.
3. We have a doji. That bar made a new low with volume less than previous two bars but made up to close in its up third. No one (BB) was selling there or the bar would not have closed on its up third.
4. A medium range up bar going though PSY area with less volume than previous 4 bars and closing on its hi. May be a ND bar... but next bar never toke its low, on the contrary next bar toke its hi.
5. We have an up bar closing on its low, going to new territory with quite some volumen. It looks like an UT to me, but then next bar did not close below its low, and had much less volume. If there were sellers there volumen would need to increase on a down move but it did not.
6. That was an up bar that made a new low with less volumen than previous 10 bars. A NS bar to me at an interesting area. An area that was resistance (friday's hi) and that now may be support. Price toke the hi of bar number 6 confirming the NS and went up to BC with an increase of volume confirming the up trend.
7. Was an up bar closing on its hi with volumen. We suspect that BB's could be selling up there because of that volume so we look for the result of that effort to rise... and we see that the result is a lateral movement of price for more than one hour. It took 3 bars to rise the price 50 ticks, and then it took 4 bars to down it less that 30 ticks.
8. We have a narrow spread down bar with less volume than previous two bars. Next bar toke its hi confirming a possible NS bar at number 8 but with potential weakness at number 7 we need to be cautious. Two bars after bar 8 we have a inner bar indicating that the is no professional participation at that moment.
9. We have a down bar with huge volume (compared to previous bars). It could had been an attempt to take AR area (breaking the ice) but the bar after bar 9, was an up bar, a bar that make a new hi. How could bar 9 be selling going on if the bar after 9 is an up bar making a new hi?...
10. We have a wide spread up bar with volume closing the micro segment (from previous BC area). That bar was identified by you as a E2R bar. That bar could has selling on it due to the hi volume so we focus on the next bar witch is a down bar with quite volume but closing far from its low... Was some one buying there so that the close was on the up third? Next bar is a NS bar signaling that BB were not interested in lower prices. It they were not interested in lower prices they may be interested in higher prices...
11. We have a with spread up bar with volume closing above the V segment. Again someone was doing an effort to push prices up across resistance selling areas. The bar that you signal with ND has less volume than the previous two bars but it was still quite high volume... Then finally the bar that you signaled as an UT is a narrow inside bar (as previous three bars), so no an ideal UP beside the fact that you would be selling against a support (previous resistance BC was taken with price closing above it so coud be now support). Why would you sell against a support area on an up trending market that never confirmed its weakness?
I hope it makes sense.
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