DislikedPossible answer to question about falling yield of US T - Bonds:
Greece:
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Yields surging and bond price going south, totally normal as investors have no trust into those bonds therfore demanding higher yields.
Not possible to print money therfore needs to raise money trough the EC.
US:
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Oops totally the opposite. Mmmhh strange ah yes the FED can print money till all the trees are gone from this planet.
Any T bonds bubble soon??
CheersIgnored
I think there is a bubble in Government Bonds, and I am looking at far out of the money put options on the TLT ETF as a proxy to short the US long bond, but let let me state my position here. I think the US is on a fiscal and monetary train wreck, hence holding gold and silver and looking at sugar now over the long term. But I m focused on the next 6-18 months, or 12-24 months for the AUD. Yes over the next decade AUD should be fine, and go on to new highs. However, the trend in T-Bond yields is down, thats what price indicator and my trend indicators are saying. Despite all the printing, all the fears about the debt ceiling US T-Bond yields are falling. It might be a bubble, but bubble like conditions can last a few years remember.
Credit default swaps on OZ banks are rising, and are breaking to new medium term highs. Interest rates expectations are mis-priced in Oz. There is denial about the credit bubble in the real estate market. No central bank ever comes out and says we have a bubble in housing. I m still allowing for another possible break above 1.1015, but time is closing in on that possibility. Retail traders are busy building longs according to the data, while future traders are easing of their AUD longs. This is a sea change in sentiment, and is a symptom of a change that takes place at turning points.
Time will tell, but I have not even mentioned China in this equation, and I will say it again, being naked long the AUD is a very risky trade at this juncture.