OK my 2 cents. Please, please feel free to point out anything you disagree with
I have attached a monthly, weekly and daily chart from the Euro futures. I have photoshopped the daily so the volume is against the correct bar (please ignore the volume's colour, it obviously doesn't match whether its an up or down bar anymore).
Firstly, the monthly. I don't think anyone would dispute we are in an uptrend. A shakeout and transfer from weak to strong holders whilst Europe was going to die in the middle of last year, saw an uptrend begin. We saw some supply enter the market in October (take profit?) but on the November down bar we see more buying - in fact the 2nd highest volume bar in the euro's existence. The next bar is up, showing clear buying. After December's up bar, we see a test where the low of the bar dips below December's low but ends on the high - I mean come on, how can people be seeing this as weakness??? Strong sign of strength IMHO.
Next, the weekly. In December, we have our no supply bar, followed in early January by a 2 bar reversal / shakeout. Sure, we have a couple of upthrusts (in fact a hidden upthrust at the end of Jan but look at the volume - average. This is not the smart money saying lets get the hell out of euro. Next week is less volume on a down bar, but only just down - no real interest in the down side here. Then we have a possible shakeout / test 2 weeks ago - dropping below the previous weeks low but closing on the high. Then last week, it closed off the highs but look at the volume - this isn't distribution!!
Finally, the daily. I've highlighted 2 key bars - the no supply on the 14th Feb, followed by Friday's down bar - look at the volume! There is no interest to the downside here from the smart money.
Here rests my case. If I'm right in my judgements (and please tell me if I am wrong) how can anyone be anything but bullish?
I have attached a monthly, weekly and daily chart from the Euro futures. I have photoshopped the daily so the volume is against the correct bar (please ignore the volume's colour, it obviously doesn't match whether its an up or down bar anymore).
Firstly, the monthly. I don't think anyone would dispute we are in an uptrend. A shakeout and transfer from weak to strong holders whilst Europe was going to die in the middle of last year, saw an uptrend begin. We saw some supply enter the market in October (take profit?) but on the November down bar we see more buying - in fact the 2nd highest volume bar in the euro's existence. The next bar is up, showing clear buying. After December's up bar, we see a test where the low of the bar dips below December's low but ends on the high - I mean come on, how can people be seeing this as weakness??? Strong sign of strength IMHO.
Next, the weekly. In December, we have our no supply bar, followed in early January by a 2 bar reversal / shakeout. Sure, we have a couple of upthrusts (in fact a hidden upthrust at the end of Jan but look at the volume - average. This is not the smart money saying lets get the hell out of euro. Next week is less volume on a down bar, but only just down - no real interest in the down side here. Then we have a possible shakeout / test 2 weeks ago - dropping below the previous weeks low but closing on the high. Then last week, it closed off the highs but look at the volume - this isn't distribution!!
Finally, the daily. I've highlighted 2 key bars - the no supply on the 14th Feb, followed by Friday's down bar - look at the volume! There is no interest to the downside here from the smart money.
Here rests my case. If I'm right in my judgements (and please tell me if I am wrong) how can anyone be anything but bullish?
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