DislikedGlad to see i've identified the same level as the master
Looking for a test/NS at 3640 (trigger line on attached 2hr chart) for a long, otherwise i'm short as well.Ignored
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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DislikedGlad to see i've identified the same level as the master
Looking for a test/NS at 3640 (trigger line on attached 2hr chart) for a long, otherwise i'm short as well.Ignored
Dislikedmy live acct is with forex.com. I've found the broker volume on MT4 to be suspect at times, but they give me a free eSignal feed as well so I generally look at both the eSignal feed and broker feed.Ignored
Would also recommend The-LFB's insightful market sentiment writings as found on this page; if you're looking for a good day-to-day analysis, it could be beneficial to read some of the previous day's writeups; the one that follows is today's.
Pressure Builds As The Dollar Index Holds Support
Something Has To Give
Currency pairs moved back to their opening prices after Asian session trade saw Usd selling. The moves were reversed as European futures markets sent S&P 500 equity prices lower off a test of 1292 resistance, to settle around 1285 ahead of the London price fixings on oil and gold. A bout of intra-day Usd buying coincided with weaker than expected U.K. GDP numbers, which sent Gbp lower against all major counterparts and created a Usd buying move that could not however transpose itself to other pairs.
Tight ranges on Aud and Cad do not reflect the fact that global commodity prices have dropped 3-5% over the last few sessions. Jpy and Chf trading in the same tight ranges do not reflect the volatility in global interest rate markets. Eur and Gbp had been levitated higher on the strength of Federal Reserve-backed equity buying that has floated stocks higher on incredibly light participation levels. That is something Gbp will now rely upon to retrieve the overnight pip loss in reaction to a preliminary GDP read that garnered far more algorithm attention than seemed logical.
The dollar index remains anchored at 78.50 and seems to be having a hard time attracting buyers in the near-term. The index is easily holding main 78.00 support and created a 4-hour chart triple bottom that does target 82.00 if equity trade drops S&P Futures down to test 1265 support.
Global market trade has signaled a major swing point, with commodities trading out of sync with equity and dollar trade.Interest rate markets are absorbing a raft of regional Bund, Gilt, and Treasury noise that is coming from all quarters as governments step in to protect their own views on fair value.
Gold does not generate a new long signal until 1350 is broken and held on a weekly chart basis, in-line with silver closing through 27.50. A new long-oil signal will not be seen until WTI closes a weekly chart above 89.00. None of the three price points look to be in any danger of getting hit in the near term. Short signals for the next leg lower are gold under 1320, silver under 25.50, and WTI oil trade under 86.00, all of which could pressure equity values and allow the dollar index the chance to play catch-up.
Even in the high velocity, low-volume trading world of global equity trade, where fair value is set each day by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as they manipulate trade between the Fed’s Primary Dealers in an effort to monetize QE2 doctrines, it may be difficult to stop a test of 1265 support on the S&P 500.
However, these are unique times, with new normal’s to absorb each day, which lead to having to bank early and bank often, at least until an increase in global participation levels return. If not investors will suffer the same fate as 2009, and early 2010, when reversals hit as soon as the punch bowl of Federal Reserve back-stops were removed. In that environment intra-day futures reversals of 1-2% are not only tolerated but expected.
Long term investors in stocks are still waiting for the last decade to turn positive, with 1250 on S&P 500 trade a benchmark that just will not go away nor will it be easily broken and held, either long or short.
The S&P 500 index ended 2010 at 1257.64, just slightly higher than that level. Although it gained 13% for the year, the 2010 close was only 28 points, or 2.3%, higher than its 1998 close.
S&P 500's 1250 Tipping Point
This confirms once again that the buy-and-hold mantra is outdated. Once we factor in inflation, the index's return has been negative over the last 12 years. The ride hasn't been quiet however, as seen in the moves listed above. The index has seen big intra-day swings, 100% yearly reversals and the birth of a new generation of high-frequency trading that has come to dominate futures exchanges worldwide.
DislikedHere's what comes to mind:
[list][*]Chinese rate hike threat & risk impact[*]US GDP upcoming[*]Obama State of the Union impact[*]FOMC meeting in a new makeup w/4 hawkish members[*]DX possible bounce up, thus inverse reaction in euro[*]gold, S&P, Dow reversal zones - see below for the importance of 1250[*]equity market rise continues on incredibly low volume: 20% since August (assuming you count algos) - no better time for reversal than hitting major resistance areas - would a 10% correction be reasonable?[*]euro December problems have absolutely...Ignored
DislikedJust so you know, the free esignal feed with forex.com does not include the full contributor feed. It's only the GAIN feed.
Those with IB may have noticed you get interbank volume (not tick) and time and sales. Yes, for spot fx
Only problem is that it's not historical, it's only real time.
Sure it isn't the whole market, but it's enough for me to be able to read the tape and profit from it.Ignored
Dislikedlittle ND on the EU15 just before NY closes, right after a 2-bar UT. If it weren't 4PM i'd probably short the break of the ND, but for now i'm going to wait it out.Ignored
Dislikedit still amazes me how old bad habits can creep back into your mind so easily. The post above was so not warranted now that I think about it. 60, 30, and 15 min charts were all above the hull, and not just because of the single ND-like bar (which is suspect anyways due to time of day) would one want to go short there. Plus I have a plan established for possible re-entry at 3640 area given the right setup.
Apologies for that post, it is of no use to this thread.Ignored
DislikedIgnored
DislikedI think many appreciate having the article right here to read, ....Ignored
Dislikedactually through the esignal feed i can get both the GAIN feed and the composite GTIS feed. EUR A0-FX is the GTIS feed and EUR@GAIN A0-FX is the GAIN feed. I use the GTIS feed with the esignal software.Ignored
QuoteDisliked...features include a real-time data feed powered by FOREX.com for the majors and several crosses, composite data from Global Treasury Information Services, Inc. (GTIS),which provides a broad representation of the market as a whole.
Dislikedtgwhbb, sebohsj, And anyone else using the 'free' or forex.com-type provided datafeed: are you guys talking about and using the ForexCharts program from eSignal, which they give you to use with the 'free' eSignal datafeed?
If so, do you have problems with the updating and redrawing of the volume on a live basis, ie., it doesn't draw the volume in the volume area, until I hit refresh? I can leave a few charts up of various timeframes, and I have to hit refresh to have the volumes appear - it's very annoying. I have tried this on 2 PCs and the problem...Ignored
DislikedDear Bel
I too use the esignal charting package of forex.com and have the same problem in terms of volume need to keep refreshing it every time. I tried chatting with their live support but nothing came out they said it could be firewall at your office when i asked what about at home where there is no firewall no answer. I guess we need to refresh that is it.
regards
balajiIgnored
DislikedThanks for the input and confirmation.
Clearly the problem is with them and their application, not us. I hate it how helpdesks just makeup stuff to make people go away.
I'm getting the real GTIS feed somewhat because of that and will not be going with the broker who offers these half-baked tools and services.Ignored
DislikedHey there!
Point and figure charts can be used to determine how far movements are about to go.
Point and figure charts don't measure time, so the blocks don't align with the candle chart.
The cup like formation on the left (not seen in my example, but in a current 1h EU) is followed by the blocks, too.
It is said that the longer price stands still around one level, the more far the next move will be. In my calculation (trial 1) the next move will be around 300 pips
Does anybody here use PnF, too?
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