Dislikedyeah, the strategy on this thread was amongst the strategies I tested. All of them showed similar results regarding intrade management.Ignored
so, what is your conclusion? regarding Hit Rate and R:R?
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Dislikedyeah, the strategy on this thread was amongst the strategies I tested. All of them showed similar results regarding intrade management.Ignored
DislikedI think the similarities are because all these strategies have positiove expectancy.
so, what is your conclusion? regarding Hit Rate and R:R?Ignored
DislikedI go for R:R over hit-rate.
Counter-intuitive, I know. Cause when we begin with trading, we search normally for a high hit-rate strategy. Yes, it's better for compounding purposes.
But as I mentioned, accuracy is such a big point with high win-rate and low R:R strategies. And try being accurate over thousands of trades. It's pretty hard to do. Psychologically high win-rate strategies are easier since you have many more winners than losses, but let's say it is so much more intense, since you have to fight over every pip so to speak and have to try...Ignored
Dislikedwhat if Risk to Reward from 1:1 up to 1:2 ? What is still the probability to have hit rate higher than 60%?
I understand you mean very high R;R probably 1:10, right?>Ignored
DislikedBy the way, I read a very interesting post recently in the newbie section about pyramiding.
This short post just showed me how we accept everything without questioning or verifying anything, especially in trading.
Basically, he says that pyramiding just works because of the nature of the markets. He gives a good example where pyramiding doesn't work, in roulette with black and red, cause trends are completely random in the casino.
But, in my opinion, such a realization is gold. Why certain things work and why they don't. If human nature were...Ignored
DislikedI do not like compounding on unrealized profit. After profit is bagged we can compound. I think with compounding same MM rules must apply to keep it safe.if I made 2% week. Next week I increase my risk per trade +1.02% with matching take profits. in this case especially if set ups are on high time frames we do not face much danger of catastrophic DD.
Patience is very important here. Human nature is mostly about getting results quickly, but playing compounding needs time.Ignored
DislikedI was more just trying to make a point that we learned so many things about trading, but we never really questioned the things we learned. As you know I am now a lot into statistics.
I rarely see any statistics for example about price patterns traded here on this forum. Or statistics about strategies.
Everybody just tries teaching stuff which may not even be true (anymore), since almost nobody really makes the effort to verify the stuff they learned.
Human nature is quite interesting.Ignored
DislikedI also think that guys who open their threads with goal to teach should at least post their own myfxbook results over some period. It would clean this forum quite a bitIgnored
Dislikedwhen I was going to prop shop learning to trade stocks, we had one guy who came and claimed he was doing great in Forex. we never seen his results but he looked really self confident even too much so. However, he lost trading stocks a way more than I did. few times more and than he quit within month and a half. Now I learned from another person who used to trade at the same office that he offered to teach price action trading in Forex $1500.....
3 month mentoring and that person paid him without even asking for proof of that gy Forex success.
The...Ignored
DislikedI honestly think that the 95% losers to 5% winners figure also applies to this forum.
Most strategies posted in this forum won't work, and most people on this forum also won't ever be profitable, because they ask the wrong questions.Ignored
DislikedI go for R:R over hit-rate.
Counter-intuitive, I know. Cause when we begin with trading, we search normally for a high hit-rate strategy. Yes, it's better for compounding purposes.
But as I mentioned, accuracy is such a big point with high win-rate and low R:R strategies. And try being accurate over thousands of trades. It's pretty hard to do. Psychologically high win-rate strategies are easier since you have many more winners than losses, but let's say it is so much more intense, since you have to fight over every pip so to speak and have to try...Ignored
Dislikedi have the opposite view: i think low win-rate with high R:R is tougher. Here is my reasoning why: we are human. When we conduct these backtest cases, there is an underlying assumption that every trade will be taken. That is not the case in reality, unless you are using a trading robot.(and trading robots are no, no.)
Personally, my daily existence of life/work interferes with trading a lot, as such, i prefer high win rate with lower r/r....Ignored
DislikedThe probability of having a high hit rate while increasing R:R depends on the edge you found. It depends on the pattern you trade. Each pattern has its own probabilities. So for some edges (which I have not discovered yet), there might be a 90% probability of reaching a target of 2:1. Some other edges / patterns might have a lower probability. All depends really on the edge you found.
Yes, very high R:R is 10:1 for me.Ignored
Dislikeddddd, You have the point. I wonder , what do you mean by lower R:R? Let's say you risk 40 pips to get how many pips?
I also tjhink that Custos is mostly monitoring daily charts to get that R:R. It means that there is not much opportunities of the kind and it is easier to monitor and enter such trades as not much accuracy needed.Ignored
DislikedLow R/R, in my view, is anything between 1:1 to 1:3. High R/R in my book is anything between 1:4 to 1:12. Very high R/R is 1:12 or 1:13 and above. I dont believe in negative R/R, that is, something like 2:1. or 1:5 to 1. Sorry, i have been psychologically scarred from such foolishness.
I trade the dailies too...i still miss trades...but then, i track over 30 pairs....Ignored