when i see the next trade ill post it, but right now it seems that risk is taking the cake atm.
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 20,569 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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Dislikedif we close above 3421, im ST bullish....that would indicate a semi reversal with resistances nearing 3465-3509 stronger nearing 3671. Support comes in at 3353.
today is exactly why i pulled out for december ....i was laughed at on another thread for this. I wonder how many people got burnt today trying to short this? not me, these huge one sided moves will surely be seen throughout the rest of this month.Ignored
DislikedPound is in a tough place right now between 100dma and this 50 fib level(1.0520-2.1160)....my ideal entry for short would be closer to this major 50fib level. Tuesday Gbp has Halifax and Thursday rate statement. 6h system shows nice agreement with this fib level.Ignored
DislikedThis level I posted last week has proved to be a very strong resistance. Technically speaking, when a major moving average is acting as a resistance along with a major Fibonacci level and a weekly or monthly pivot resistance, it about as close to a sure trade as we can get as technical traders. We could see a bit more downside for the pound( I'm thinking somewhere less than 80 pips) before the market takes back some sterling. Other pound crosses, most notably Gbp/Chf, are getting ready to bounce in the next 18 hours. I like buying Gbp/Usd closer...Ignored
DislikedIf you look at most chf crosses, the market looks like its ready to take back the opposing currency. By the looks of things, Jpy and Usd are ready to be bought in the next day or two. Oil and gold have hit serious barriers nearing 90 and 1400, respectively. In addition to commodities, SP and Dow appear to be nearing some profit taking resistance with their current positioning. The only thing that could mess up the medium term Usd, Jpy strength, would be if treasury yields were to fall.
This is one trade that I like currently, along with a few...Ignored
DislikedAnother trade that I like at the moment is selling Eur/Gbp on rallies. Recent pound weakness over the past two days has given this pair room to rally. I would sell rallies until .85941 is broken, at which point in time I would buy dips. Entry near .8550-70 with stops above .8594, 1st target would be .8430.Ignored
DislikedUsd strength seems to be playing out well as I pointed out yesterday. All trades I posted over the past couple days have been winners for nice gains so far. 4 insider trading arrests have been made today which might add more fuel to risk aversion.
One pair that I do like selling is Aud/Nzd. As risk aversion picks up, this pair should fall, and given how sharp this rally has been, the correction will be sharp. I like entry near 1.3500 with a modest stop above 1.3550Ignored
DislikedAud is showing hidden signs of weakness all across the board, but most notably Aud/Nzd. I'm not quite sure it will make it to 1.35, there will probably be some options related selling interest if it approaches that level. I like it short at 1.3540 with an 80 pip stop.
Aud/Cad is also showing signs weakness, I'll be short at 1.0150 with 60 pip stop. Great RR in both of these trades.Ignored
DislikedAud is showing hidden signs of weakness all across the board, but most notably Aud/Nzd. I'm not quite sure it will make it to 1.35, there will probably be some options related selling interest if it approaches that level. I like it short at 1.3540 with an 80 pip stop.
Aud/Cad is also showing signs weakness, I'll be short at 1.0150 with 60 pip stop. Great RR in both of these trades.Ignored
DislikedAud/Nzd short was triggered, I got a little shallower entry(1.3509) than expected(1.3540). Risk on the trade has been adjusted to 0%.
I'm also holding a short in Aud/Cad from yesterday at 1.0141 with risk at <1%.Ignored
DislikedI guess this is why Aud was so well bid last week. This will be very negative for the Aud. I pointed out the hidden weakness I saw in Aud last week multiple times shown in the chart.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...inflation.htmlIgnored
DislikedI just got a great signal short for Chf/Jpy. Stops above 88 look to be a safe area, great RR on this trade.Ignored