DislikedHello all,
I am an autotrader, and have been reading this thread with some interest. I would like to point out that the "coin flip" scenario as it is being conducted here is flawed. In fact, as presented here, the expectancy would be enormous!
The error is in the assumption that it is possible to stack the wins with a subsequent win. This is true if and only if each new trade is in the same direction as the previous trade. Missing is that each new trade could be in either the same or opposite direction to the previous trade. So one should...Ignored
The methods that Graeme has mentioned also allows for reversals, but he has yet to go into this in any depth, save to say that he has implied that he has positions in both directions on same ccy pairs. I would consider the reversal as another Hor T sequence that can be started at any time.
Ray