So far it has been a slow arduous two days for lower lows... Now it seems that on the daily PA as of yesterday was showing for a testing of the 135.20-30 which did not break. For today that level needs to fall to keep a bearish swing bias in full tilt. Now we had PA that jumped up to 136.70-80 when the morning upper trend channel was broken but it has not yet negated the bear swing. This actually allow some good shorts to be placed with low R/R to be placed with soft stops above 137.
Let's step back and look at some fundies: VIX levels are at it's lowest in 3 years closing 16.35. This is a good indicator to look at risk appetite, at least for me. PA history has shown that the GBP/JPY has depreciated a substantial amount and with the political parties in differing viewpoints it has effected cable for the medium term with a bearish bias. Now have we hit a level where the market is more comfortable that in the longer term PA will go up? JPY will start again being the dominant carry trade currency as the USD futures starts to get a whiff of potential interest-rate hikes, not even actually hikes just the perception of hikes... After summer that perception should start to percolate through the market... Have we hit the bottom of this bearish medium-term downtrend?
Let's step back and look at some fundies: VIX levels are at it's lowest in 3 years closing 16.35. This is a good indicator to look at risk appetite, at least for me. PA history has shown that the GBP/JPY has depreciated a substantial amount and with the political parties in differing viewpoints it has effected cable for the medium term with a bearish bias. Now have we hit a level where the market is more comfortable that in the longer term PA will go up? JPY will start again being the dominant carry trade currency as the USD futures starts to get a whiff of potential interest-rate hikes, not even actually hikes just the perception of hikes... After summer that perception should start to percolate through the market... Have we hit the bottom of this bearish medium-term downtrend?
Traderdesk -