Well, if you thought last weeks news was bad, this weeks numbers will have a greater effect on potentially weakening the euro and strenghtening the dollar.
Monday
Industrial Production EU, France and Germany already reported, rest of EU due
We are also seeing the quarterly change in unemployment generall expected to worsen, weakening the euro
Big Tuesday
We have the UK RPI, CPI and core CPI due. Germany sentiment, lets see if it can stay above 50, this accounts for almost 40% of EU output. Any number under 51 will hurt the euro. And then the US PPI and the core PPI due, PPI is expected to come in at 1.0, better then forecasted, strengtening the dollar. The US industrial production is expected to come in at 0.6, better then forecasted; strenghtening the dollar again. Then the French CPI, second biggest economy in EU forecasted at 0.2 so there will be no reason for a rate hike any time soon. It may come in at 0.1 weakening the euro even further.
So a quiet Monday followed by a big Tuesday and then FOMC and Core CPI on Wednesday, to come in on forecast. The early part of next week looks like a strenghtening of the dollar and a weakening of the euro.
Then we have all the flash PMI's due and finally the Current Account on Friday, again expected to worsen.
I am glad I am a techie, getting my head around the news is making my head spin. It is important to figure out though what the general consensus of direction is based on the numbers. This will all be reflected in the charts, just don't join the spike in the wrong direction, like some of you did on Friday.....
The biggest question is does all this bad news in Europe for three weeks on the trot amount to a trend change? let's see where we close on Friday, it is not looking good for the euro....
My long term outlook is still bullish, I want to see 3-4 weeks closing consistently lower before I agree on bearish outlook.
Monday
Industrial Production EU, France and Germany already reported, rest of EU due
We are also seeing the quarterly change in unemployment generall expected to worsen, weakening the euro
Big Tuesday
We have the UK RPI, CPI and core CPI due. Germany sentiment, lets see if it can stay above 50, this accounts for almost 40% of EU output. Any number under 51 will hurt the euro. And then the US PPI and the core PPI due, PPI is expected to come in at 1.0, better then forecasted, strengtening the dollar. The US industrial production is expected to come in at 0.6, better then forecasted; strenghtening the dollar again. Then the French CPI, second biggest economy in EU forecasted at 0.2 so there will be no reason for a rate hike any time soon. It may come in at 0.1 weakening the euro even further.
So a quiet Monday followed by a big Tuesday and then FOMC and Core CPI on Wednesday, to come in on forecast. The early part of next week looks like a strenghtening of the dollar and a weakening of the euro.
Then we have all the flash PMI's due and finally the Current Account on Friday, again expected to worsen.
I am glad I am a techie, getting my head around the news is making my head spin. It is important to figure out though what the general consensus of direction is based on the numbers. This will all be reflected in the charts, just don't join the spike in the wrong direction, like some of you did on Friday.....
The biggest question is does all this bad news in Europe for three weeks on the trot amount to a trend change? let's see where we close on Friday, it is not looking good for the euro....
My long term outlook is still bullish, I want to see 3-4 weeks closing consistently lower before I agree on bearish outlook.