If you flip a coin 10,000 times and stay with heads you win ~50% of the time. If you flip two coins 10,000 times, they match ~50% of the time.
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DislikedAhhh, I don't think that is right. It's been awhile since I took probability (I'm sure if you want to know the math of why your wrong, we can look it up), but for now I ran a simulation of coin tosses. Ran both cases 10,000 times.
If you flip a coin 10,000 times and stay with heads you win ~50% of the time. If you flip two coins 10,000 times, they match ~50% of the time.Ignored
DislikedIf you flip 2 coins the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH, and TT.
Now think about trading.
If you only pick heads, you will be right half the time OVER THE LONG HAUL.
If you flip a coin to pick heads or tails, you could have one heck of a losing streak or miss out on one heck of a win streak.
I believe you proved my point....Ignored
DislikedIf you were to stick with on direction for the rest of your life...lets say Long , Everytrade you made the rest of your life would have a 50/50 chance.
But if you go back and forth in your mind between long and short....and the market is going back and forth... guess what...it is not 50/50 its 25%
If in vegas , you sit a table that has a red or black choice...baring luck over x trials...you should be @ 25 % right.
If you sit at that same table ..and pick just one color, lets say red...over the same period as above , you should be closer...Ignored
QuoteDislikedThere is a serious flaw in this idea and that is, it is not the entry but the exit that makes or breaks a trade.