QuoteDislikedThese coin toss experiments seem to have exceedingly short lifespans. This is the third one I've seen just sort of...fizzle. I wonder why that is? Boredom?
If I had to guess why... the market may go up or down. If you always went long, you'd have a 50% / 50% chance of getting it right assuming a perfectly ranging, non-trending market. If you also flip a coin for direction that's a 50/50 chance you'll guess the direction, meaning you have a 1/4 or 25% chance of getting the right direction at the right time. In order to profit from that your entry would have to net over a 4:1 RR, which for random entries is going to be problematic at best (it's problematic on non-random entries even).
I'm not sure you can optimize your SL and TP to fix that simple fact without turning this into a carry-loss system (open up the SL wide enough and I'm sure some trades will work out, but those that don't will really hurt you).
I suspect you'd do better always going long or short, or basing it on some kind of long term trend. I suspect looking for momentum clues and trading only when there's enough volatility to support you might help. But all of that is outside the scope of a simple coin flip method.
As for using a coin flip for entry... in a trending market that works. Statistically a coin flip entry in the direction of the trend (again, I've back tested this pretty extensively) is as good as any other entry. Guess that explains why the dart board method works so well in a bull market. Ranging or sideways periods tho... probably not so good .