Hey let me just say somethings that I've been thinking the last few months and see what everyone's idea is of them.
~ The market is made up of huge waves, shaped like sine or cosine waves, that last 2-9 days.
~These waves are slowly but constantly changing shape and size.
~Since these waves are constantly changing shape and size, fitting a system to several years worth of waves is completely counter-productive.
~It's much more productive to optimized a system to the current shape and size of the currencies wave.
~According to my research, the optimal length of time to optimize a system to the currency wave is just 4 months.
~This means that if compared with the market four months ago, the market now would look very different; and indeed it does.
~This is because 4 months is the time it takes the market wave to completely change shape.
~This is also why it's very very difficult to optimize a system over years of market data. It's like trying to find only one change of clothes to wear the whole year, for every season and event.
One thing to note is all this research was done on the hourly GBP/USD. But from glances at least other currencies, the principles seem to hold up. I believe the principle is there on other timeframes, it's just much harder to see.
~ The market is made up of huge waves, shaped like sine or cosine waves, that last 2-9 days.
~These waves are slowly but constantly changing shape and size.
~Since these waves are constantly changing shape and size, fitting a system to several years worth of waves is completely counter-productive.
~It's much more productive to optimized a system to the current shape and size of the currencies wave.
~According to my research, the optimal length of time to optimize a system to the currency wave is just 4 months.
~This means that if compared with the market four months ago, the market now would look very different; and indeed it does.
~This is because 4 months is the time it takes the market wave to completely change shape.
~This is also why it's very very difficult to optimize a system over years of market data. It's like trying to find only one change of clothes to wear the whole year, for every season and event.
One thing to note is all this research was done on the hourly GBP/USD. But from glances at least other currencies, the principles seem to hold up. I believe the principle is there on other timeframes, it's just much harder to see.