It was pretty unlikely that we would bottom at the same level as in 2003 for the following reasons.
1) Credit markets were liquid back then and around the same time hedge funds leverage increased to about 1:30.
2) Stocks above 200 EMA are dead flat (ultimate sign of a dead bull), not so in 2002-2003.
http://i42.tinypic.com/352odwh.jpg
3) Rydex Cash flow is relatively bullish and nowhere near the support level created when the SP500 stoped making higher highs. (in 2003 there was a break down, pointing toward a complete capitulation by the last bulls still standing).
http://i43.tinypic.com/200xri1.jpg
2) Earnings are droping so quickly that the P/E bands are converging (didn't even happen back in '29). P/E is now 28! Watch for another Oct style crash before this is over. Bear market rallies could be much shorter, as they did after 1930 during the great depression.
http://i42.tinypic.com/2ntl89j.gif
1) Credit markets were liquid back then and around the same time hedge funds leverage increased to about 1:30.
2) Stocks above 200 EMA are dead flat (ultimate sign of a dead bull), not so in 2002-2003.
http://i42.tinypic.com/352odwh.jpg
3) Rydex Cash flow is relatively bullish and nowhere near the support level created when the SP500 stoped making higher highs. (in 2003 there was a break down, pointing toward a complete capitulation by the last bulls still standing).
http://i43.tinypic.com/200xri1.jpg
2) Earnings are droping so quickly that the P/E bands are converging (didn't even happen back in '29). P/E is now 28! Watch for another Oct style crash before this is over. Bear market rallies could be much shorter, as they did after 1930 during the great depression.
http://i42.tinypic.com/2ntl89j.gif