Areas of interest for today's session EURUSD
Trading Fibonacci Time Zones and Support and Resistance? 20 replies
Trading with Praised Prominent Zones (PPZ) 28 replies
Trading Fib Zones 94 replies
Trading with REAL support and resistance (Big volume zones) 10 replies
Trading highly probable fib zones method 2 replies
DislikedYes I agree, I think many traders are attracted to this idea and rightly so, lining up setups across multiple time frames is one of the best concepts around IMO. I think ultimately what every you decide, you must trade it the same way every time. I have been studying trading methods for a couple of years now and in hindsight I probably could have made a few of them work if I had stuck at them, but I am actually glad that I kept on searching for something better. I have come around full circle a few times and have found throughout all of this study...Ignored
DislikedThese are my areas of interest so far. the white lines are trend lines from the 15-min chart. The blue lines are what I believe to be pivotal points in the Jesse Livermore sense of the word. I prefer to have a hard, fine line rather than a wider zone. It's not that I blindy buy or sell as soon as price breaks the line (I always watch price action first), but it does help me make a decision.Ignored
DislikedMorning !
Would you not look at the most recent high as a possible PP ?Ignored
DislikedTake a look at this range breakout trade. I scaled out 1/3 of the position at +5 pips, then another 1/3 at +10. Then I moved my stop up a bit closer. In this particular trade, the news came out and price dropped. I lost 5 pips on the last 1/3.
Now this was not the ideal situation you look for in a range breakout. Of course I wanted it to keep going up, but it was sort of a bull trap. The point is I still made money on this trade by scaling out. If I were going to just trade 100% in 100% out, I probably would have lost a bit of money on this trade...Ignored
DislikedI agree on the premise. If one or two of the trades run out of 5, then the MM system works. I'm all about reducing risk first, then adding on profit.Ignored
DislikedYes. If price moved in long, clean, straight lines, it wouldn't make sense to scale out. But price doesn't move like that, does it? It's much more bouncy/spikey. With scaling out, we can often get something. Once we do, it reduces the risk on the remainder of the position. Depending on your scale-out scheme, you can find yourself in a risk-free or negative risk position. It's like "playing with the market's money," as some people say.
I'm testing a few setups. After my tests, I will calculate if it would have been better to scale out...Ignored
DislikedI'm not sure which scale out method is best. For me personally, I like the 2 lot method. Let the one lot limit out and get the other to BE as soon as possible so that I'm risk free and playing with the market's money, as you said.
Doing this I may miss a couple of big runs but I may also avoid a number of stop outs.Ignored
DislikedYes. I suggest you find out which one works better for your particular setups. Keep track of the next 20 trades, see what would have happened in each case. It will give you an idea. That's what I'm going to do.Ignored
DislikedThis is an excellent idea. I have done this a number of times with the result that usually it is better not to scale out at all, even a relatively small fixed target seemed to work better over the long run than scaling out. However, profitability is not the only concern, draw down and psychology come into it as well. Though I think we shouldn't loose sight of our main objectives, It feels good to scale out as we are reducing losing trades but by doing this our trading objectives have changed from greatest profits to greatest comfort.Ignored
I think these kinds of money management ideas are important for this thread. They are an integral part of the trading strategy. I think MM is particularly important for these types of S&R trades. There are lots of ideas to play with, like what about taking profit on 2/3 of the position after a small target, then leaving the last 1/3 to run. That's closer to a 100% exit than taking 1/2 or 1/3 after a small target, but it's still flexible to catch some profit on a larger move.
I'm also very much interested in scaling in. If you can catch a trend, you might as well exploit it with multiple streams of income. At the same time, if a new trade doesn't pan out, you'll be glad you didn't fully commit to it.
DislikedI've given considerable thought to scaling out, scaling in, averaging, stacking and all that stuff. My thoughts are that the best trades are those ones that run from the start, no drawdown, no looking back, never threatens your stop loss, but these only occur perhaps 15-20% of the time. However, they will yield a disproportionate percentage of your profits, if you give them the time to pay you.
Then there are the trades that go into a bit of profit, then come back into the red - sometimes they pass and sometimes they don't. If you pull your stop...Ignored
DislikedI've given considerable thought to scaling out, scaling in, averaging, stacking and all that stuff. My thoughts are that the best trades are those ones that run from the start, no drawdown, no looking back, never threatens your stop loss, but these only occur perhaps 15-20% of the time. However, they will yield a disproportionate percentage of your profits, if you give them the time to pay you.
Then there are the trades that go into a bit of profit, then come back into the red...Ignored
So if the axiom is true, we can see that the only time we should do any scaling, is we should scale into (i.e. add to) winning trades. All other cases lead to bigger losses or smaller profits.
However, I like your idea, birdt. If you just give the trade a few minutes to show what it's going to do, then you can judge what the best course of action is.
What does everyone think about this?
Dislikedand then use this profit to cover costs and buy me a bit more space on the stop loss so I put the position to net break even....Ignored
DislikedNice analysis of the different cases. The big question is: How do you know which case your in?
I guess it will be obvious early on if it's going to be one of those trades that just takes off and never looks back. So if that doesn't happen within a few minutes, I guess we should assume it's the type that wiggles a lot.
What I have been doing is placing my orders to TP 5 and 10 pips immediately after I open the trade. It looks like you're saying that it's better to wait a minute to see if it is going to be a big winner, that way I can play the big...Ignored
Disliked"Axiom of Inertia: Price is most likely going to continue moving in the same direction." lol, since when does a price move straight up or down? Please call me, I want to trade this market. Also, please don't bring Math or Physics into the Market because the Market is undeniably not explainable, ahem, not predictable, with any science at current. "Add to a winning trade" Sure, if you are one of the major players(trend starters), otherwise, it does not guarantee anything special. "Add to a losing trade" Again, same concept. "Scale out of a...Ignored
DislikedThat's why it's called an axiom and not a theorem. I'm well aware that math doesn't really help predict trading. I'm just quoting something that everyone says, including the big players: Don't fight the trend. The trend is your friend, etc. In other words, price will most likely continue it's current trend. I didn't mean that price moves in perfect straight lines when I said "continue moving in the same direction," I meant it will maintain the same general trend.Ignored