Thursday 3/15
3:30 CHF Interest Rate Statement 2.25% 2.00% (8:00 revised release time )
4:30 GBP Bank of England/GFK quarterly inflation expectations survey 2.7% .......2.7%
5:00 EUR CPI m/m (r) 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%
7:30 USD PPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 1.3% 0.4% -0.6%
7:30 USD Core PPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif .4% 0.2% 0.2%
7:30 USD Empire State Business Conditions Index http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 1.9 16.0 24.4
7:30 USD Unemployment Claims 318K 330K 328K
7:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m -2.1% -0.7% 1.7%
8:00 USD TIC Report http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 97.4B 46.5B 15.6B
11:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif .2% 4.0 0.6
11:30 USD Ex-Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks
18:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 1.0% -0.4%
19:25 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Edey Speaks
Market focus will shift to a barrage of US economic reports later in the session deemed to be dollar supportive. Estimates for the data, for the most part, call for improvements from the previous releases. The economic calendar kicks off with the February producer price index, seen posting a 0.4% increase versus a 0.6% decline from January. The excluding food & energy reading is forecasted to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Felix the announcement trader says, "If PPI comes out at 1.2% or higher, it would be the highest reading in over 5 years, and probably be good for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly decrease by 50 pips or so. If the number comes out at -0.9% or more negative, it would be the lowest reading in over 5 years, and GBP/USD may possibly increase by 50 pips or more." [ Actual: 1.3% ]
Fed watchers though, will wait for Friday's consumer price index for a more accurate gauge of inflation, and consequently FOMC policy direction. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to edge up to 330k, compared with 328k from the previous week.
Improvements in both the January net Treasury international capital flows (TICS) and the March Philadelphia Fed index will likely provide some respite for the greenback's declines against the euro and sterling.
The January TICS report is forecasted to jump to $45.0 billion, up sharply from December's $15.6 billion reading. Meanwhile, the March Philadelphia Fed index, slated for release at 12:00 PM New York time, may quell fears of an imminent recession - with estimates calling for a rise to 4.0, from 0.6 from February. Felix says, "If the reading reads 20 or higher, it would be the highest reading since April of 2005, and GBP/USD may possibly decrease by 30 pips or so. If the reading reads -10 or more negative, it would be the lowest reading since end of 2001, and GBP/USD may possibly increase by 30 pips or so."
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US inflation at the wholesale level (USD PPI m/m) rose in February at the fastest pace in three months and almost three times as fast as expected, the Labor Department said today.
The department's Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 1.3 pct in February, while core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4 pct. Economists had expected overall wholesale inflation to rise 0.5 pct while core inflation was expected to increase 0.2 pct in the month.
The 1.3 pct increase is the fastest increase since November, when wholesale inflation jumped 1.5 pct. Wholesale inflation jumped again in December, rising 0.9 pct before falling 0.6 pct in January.
Producer prices have now risen 2.5 pct over the past year, compared with a slight 0.2 pct year-over-year rise in January. Core prices have risen 1.8 pct in the past twelve months, matching the twelve month gain to January.
The rise in wholesale inflation stemmed from a sharp rise in both food and energy prices, which rose 1.9 pct and 3.5 pct, respectively. It's the largest increase in wholesale food prices since October 2003 and the sharpest energy price hike since November.
Within the energy sector, residential natural gas prices rose 4.1 pct, the the sharpest gain since October 2005. Gasoline prices rose 5.0 pct, while home heating oil prices rose 6.0 pct. Each was the sharpest rise since November. Liquified petroleum gas rose at the fastest pace since July, jumping 6.7 pct in February.
Core inflation was led by a 1.7 pct rise in light truck prices in February, the sharpest rise since November. Children's toy and game prices jumped 2.3 pct, the fastest rise in a generation.
Intermediate goods, which are partially processed materials, rose 1.1 pct in February, the sharpest rise since May. Crude goods jumped 8.9 pct, the sharpest increase since November.
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey slumped to a 2-year low in March, the New York Fed reported. The business conditions index slumped to 1.85 in March from 24.35 February. The survey measures manufacturing activity in the New York area.
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Anemic Philly Fed Echoes Empire State Business Conditions The diffusion index of current activity - the broadest measure of manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region - decreased from February's 0.6 figure to 0.2, a severe shortfall from the expected 4.0 figure. Philly Fed reports that "Demand for the output of the firms surveyed showed only slight improvement this month: The new orders index increased two points, from -0.5 in February to 1.9 this month. The index had been negative in three of the previous four months. The shipments index increased from 1.7 in February to 6.8 this month. Indexes for delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative, indicating shorter delivery times and a decline in unfilled orders."
Employment in region's manufacturing sector "steady, reflecting continued lack of growth... The current employment index increased three points but is at a relatively low reading of 2.3."
Even more troublesome is that weakness will persist as outlook for manufacturing growth over the next six months "showed a slight moderation," and the future general activity index along with new orders, future shipments and employment are also on a protracted decline.
3:30 CHF Interest Rate Statement 2.25% 2.00% (8:00 revised release time )
4:30 GBP Bank of England/GFK quarterly inflation expectations survey 2.7% .......2.7%
5:00 EUR CPI m/m (r) 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%
7:30 USD PPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 1.3% 0.4% -0.6%
7:30 USD Core PPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif .4% 0.2% 0.2%
7:30 USD Empire State Business Conditions Index http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 1.9 16.0 24.4
7:30 USD Unemployment Claims 318K 330K 328K
7:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m -2.1% -0.7% 1.7%
8:00 USD TIC Report http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 97.4B 46.5B 15.6B
11:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif .2% 4.0 0.6
11:30 USD Ex-Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks
18:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 1.0% -0.4%
19:25 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Edey Speaks
Market focus will shift to a barrage of US economic reports later in the session deemed to be dollar supportive. Estimates for the data, for the most part, call for improvements from the previous releases. The economic calendar kicks off with the February producer price index, seen posting a 0.4% increase versus a 0.6% decline from January. The excluding food & energy reading is forecasted to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Felix the announcement trader says, "If PPI comes out at 1.2% or higher, it would be the highest reading in over 5 years, and probably be good for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly decrease by 50 pips or so. If the number comes out at -0.9% or more negative, it would be the lowest reading in over 5 years, and GBP/USD may possibly increase by 50 pips or more." [ Actual: 1.3% ]
Fed watchers though, will wait for Friday's consumer price index for a more accurate gauge of inflation, and consequently FOMC policy direction. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to edge up to 330k, compared with 328k from the previous week.
Improvements in both the January net Treasury international capital flows (TICS) and the March Philadelphia Fed index will likely provide some respite for the greenback's declines against the euro and sterling.
The January TICS report is forecasted to jump to $45.0 billion, up sharply from December's $15.6 billion reading. Meanwhile, the March Philadelphia Fed index, slated for release at 12:00 PM New York time, may quell fears of an imminent recession - with estimates calling for a rise to 4.0, from 0.6 from February. Felix says, "If the reading reads 20 or higher, it would be the highest reading since April of 2005, and GBP/USD may possibly decrease by 30 pips or so. If the reading reads -10 or more negative, it would be the lowest reading since end of 2001, and GBP/USD may possibly increase by 30 pips or so."
__________________________________________________
US inflation at the wholesale level (USD PPI m/m) rose in February at the fastest pace in three months and almost three times as fast as expected, the Labor Department said today.
The department's Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 1.3 pct in February, while core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4 pct. Economists had expected overall wholesale inflation to rise 0.5 pct while core inflation was expected to increase 0.2 pct in the month.
The 1.3 pct increase is the fastest increase since November, when wholesale inflation jumped 1.5 pct. Wholesale inflation jumped again in December, rising 0.9 pct before falling 0.6 pct in January.
Producer prices have now risen 2.5 pct over the past year, compared with a slight 0.2 pct year-over-year rise in January. Core prices have risen 1.8 pct in the past twelve months, matching the twelve month gain to January.
The rise in wholesale inflation stemmed from a sharp rise in both food and energy prices, which rose 1.9 pct and 3.5 pct, respectively. It's the largest increase in wholesale food prices since October 2003 and the sharpest energy price hike since November.
Within the energy sector, residential natural gas prices rose 4.1 pct, the the sharpest gain since October 2005. Gasoline prices rose 5.0 pct, while home heating oil prices rose 6.0 pct. Each was the sharpest rise since November. Liquified petroleum gas rose at the fastest pace since July, jumping 6.7 pct in February.
Core inflation was led by a 1.7 pct rise in light truck prices in February, the sharpest rise since November. Children's toy and game prices jumped 2.3 pct, the fastest rise in a generation.
Intermediate goods, which are partially processed materials, rose 1.1 pct in February, the sharpest rise since May. Crude goods jumped 8.9 pct, the sharpest increase since November.
_________________________________________________
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey slumped to a 2-year low in March, the New York Fed reported. The business conditions index slumped to 1.85 in March from 24.35 February. The survey measures manufacturing activity in the New York area.
________________________________________________________
Anemic Philly Fed Echoes Empire State Business Conditions The diffusion index of current activity - the broadest measure of manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region - decreased from February's 0.6 figure to 0.2, a severe shortfall from the expected 4.0 figure. Philly Fed reports that "Demand for the output of the firms surveyed showed only slight improvement this month: The new orders index increased two points, from -0.5 in February to 1.9 this month. The index had been negative in three of the previous four months. The shipments index increased from 1.7 in February to 6.8 this month. Indexes for delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative, indicating shorter delivery times and a decline in unfilled orders."
Employment in region's manufacturing sector "steady, reflecting continued lack of growth... The current employment index increased three points but is at a relatively low reading of 2.3."
Even more troublesome is that weakness will persist as outlook for manufacturing growth over the next six months "showed a slight moderation," and the future general activity index along with new orders, future shipments and employment are also on a protracted decline.