Here I will also let out my thoughts......
Hi All..
I have been suffering continued losses on my trades just because I have failed to stick to my own rules.
Anyway, I am just going to write a few things here just to let out my thoughts. Comments would be very welcome. Opinions too and constructive criticism would be appreciated.
What I am going to write on is my thoughts on GBPUSD Movement based on Elliott Wave Analysis and a number of other indicators I use basically Stochastics of Steviets System, Sidus’ EMA5 and 12 Cross, RMI from Bagovino’s Thread, CCI, Channel, and Price Action ( Chart patterns ).
Yes it looks like it is a lot of Indicators to look at. But I do this to get confirmation from each analysis I make from each indicator. Sort of filterting almost everything before pulling the trigger.
I have been trying to do this on various pairs. But now I will focus on just the GBPUSD Pair. I am letting go of my other favorite pairs too which are the AUDUSD and the EURUSD.
I definitely am NOT an Elliott Wave Expert. I try to read up on various threads here on forex factory and consult other sites. And below would be a synthesis of all the information I gathered including my own thoughts.
Looking at my chart now. My GBP is at 1.9501 level.
My Stochastics ( I meant Steviets Stochastics ) indicate that this is moving up based on a 30m, 60m and 240 Chart. And so does the RMI. The EMA5 and 12 too have crossed and are moving up. This is the reason that I would agree with all of the people at FF that I follow in their threads re the Elliott Wave Count. People like the Great itme ( with those GREAT thoughts and insights ), Northpro and fixme1too. I also look into thoughts by Monarch, pdhawan and Lenny.
All foresee a move up with varying degrees. They are probably ALL Correct.
Some I believe think that Big Wave B down finished at 1.9400 and have finished
Wave 1 up of a Big Wave C up at 1.9676
Wave 2 down of a Big Wave C up at 1.9466
And now have started with a Wave 3 up to the 1.9700- 1.9800 Range.
Then a Wave 4 down to probably 1.9550 level.
Before Topping it off with a wave 5 up to the Range of 1.9900 to 2.0100.
An alternative scenario will be that this Big Wave B down for me is not yet finished.
If my Technical Indicators continue to show a move up beyond the 1.9550/1.9600 then I will cancel alternative scenario below.
However if I see signs that things are going down again, then ….
I would agree with itme’s thinking that this Wave down is not yet finished at 1.9400.
To me then , this is probably just the end of Wave 3 down for the Small wave c down of a zigzag Big Wave B down. Wave 4 up for this Wave B down is probably going to 1.9555-80 level or up to the 1.9750 level.
That would depend on what the technical indicators tell me.
Later, we would probably see the Wave 5 down to the Range of 1.9330-40. But itme’s TP is at 1.9400 from a Short Trade from 1.9640.
Here I believe would be the start of the Big Wave C up probably reaching the 1.9900 to 2.0100/50 Range.. Note that Wave C up should be a 5 wave pattern.
Scenarios for the Alternative Analysis ( for the UNFINISHED Wave B Down )
Hi All..
I have been suffering continued losses on my trades just because I have failed to stick to my own rules.
Anyway, I am just going to write a few things here just to let out my thoughts. Comments would be very welcome. Opinions too and constructive criticism would be appreciated.
What I am going to write on is my thoughts on GBPUSD Movement based on Elliott Wave Analysis and a number of other indicators I use basically Stochastics of Steviets System, Sidus’ EMA5 and 12 Cross, RMI from Bagovino’s Thread, CCI, Channel, and Price Action ( Chart patterns ).
Yes it looks like it is a lot of Indicators to look at. But I do this to get confirmation from each analysis I make from each indicator. Sort of filterting almost everything before pulling the trigger.
I have been trying to do this on various pairs. But now I will focus on just the GBPUSD Pair. I am letting go of my other favorite pairs too which are the AUDUSD and the EURUSD.
I definitely am NOT an Elliott Wave Expert. I try to read up on various threads here on forex factory and consult other sites. And below would be a synthesis of all the information I gathered including my own thoughts.
Looking at my chart now. My GBP is at 1.9501 level.
My Stochastics ( I meant Steviets Stochastics ) indicate that this is moving up based on a 30m, 60m and 240 Chart. And so does the RMI. The EMA5 and 12 too have crossed and are moving up. This is the reason that I would agree with all of the people at FF that I follow in their threads re the Elliott Wave Count. People like the Great itme ( with those GREAT thoughts and insights ), Northpro and fixme1too. I also look into thoughts by Monarch, pdhawan and Lenny.
All foresee a move up with varying degrees. They are probably ALL Correct.
Some I believe think that Big Wave B down finished at 1.9400 and have finished
Wave 1 up of a Big Wave C up at 1.9676
Wave 2 down of a Big Wave C up at 1.9466
And now have started with a Wave 3 up to the 1.9700- 1.9800 Range.
Then a Wave 4 down to probably 1.9550 level.
Before Topping it off with a wave 5 up to the Range of 1.9900 to 2.0100.
An alternative scenario will be that this Big Wave B down for me is not yet finished.
If my Technical Indicators continue to show a move up beyond the 1.9550/1.9600 then I will cancel alternative scenario below.
However if I see signs that things are going down again, then ….
I would agree with itme’s thinking that this Wave down is not yet finished at 1.9400.
To me then , this is probably just the end of Wave 3 down for the Small wave c down of a zigzag Big Wave B down. Wave 4 up for this Wave B down is probably going to 1.9555-80 level or up to the 1.9750 level.
That would depend on what the technical indicators tell me.
Later, we would probably see the Wave 5 down to the Range of 1.9330-40. But itme’s TP is at 1.9400 from a Short Trade from 1.9640.
Here I believe would be the start of the Big Wave C up probably reaching the 1.9900 to 2.0100/50 Range.. Note that Wave C up should be a 5 wave pattern.
Scenarios for the Alternative Analysis ( for the UNFINISHED Wave B Down )
- if Endpoint of Wave 5 down is at 1.9330-40
Fibo Levels Wave 5 of a Wave C up would be
61.8 - 1.9744
78.6 - 1.9855
100 - 2.000
- if endpoint is @ 1.9400 then TP at following levels are possible
61.8 - 1.9805
78.6 - 1.9927
100 - 2.0100/150
Now I am at the Crossroads
If I enter a position now and Trade Long which ultimately is the Objective
- I can ride to the Profits up to 1.9800 or Higher based on the 1st Scenario.
- However if the trade follows the Alternative Scenario which is this Wave B down is not yet complete…. I would have to place my SL down to 1.9300 which is about 200 pips.
Looking at what I am willing to Risk right now which is USD250 on my LIVE Account,
- I could actually put everything in or maybe USD200 and leave USD50 just to leave something in my account. That is of course considering that I will need at least a 200pip SL at least ( But I would normally have 250 SL for my GBPUSD Long Term Trades with my broker. )
- If the waves move
- against my LONG Trade at 1.9501 and fall as low as 1.9300, then I am still supposed to be on the CLEAR and just ride my way back up from down below and finish the Wave C up. I could probably put in my remaining USD50 for a LONG Trade to 1.9350 – 1.9400 ( Inclusive of my 250 SL of course ).
- Up and reach the 1.9550 / 19600 area , then I can exit at probably 1.9530 at the least for a small profit or make break even at 1.9501. probably at least take in some profits at 1.9520 on a downward move.
I could sit it out till it hits the bottom or I can ride down with the trend and Exit at 1.9400 or lower.
If I ride it down, Then I enter a new Long Trade upon exit of my Short Trade.
There you go.
EG