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I think you are right, price will be driven up tomorrow by trip Wed.
But the way this market is anything and everything could happen.
I wonder how long this oil trade is going to correlate the carry trades?
I also wonder if this is not a false breakout.
My weekly moms are all pointing down and we have yet to see that price action yet.
But I favor your scenario. Buy into Wed. Sell into Thurs-Fri.